Estimation Of Repair Time Of The High-speed Railway Catenary System

In recent years,massive construction across the country has lead the high-speed train to its golden age.In the meantime,the safety and the reliability are the last two aspects that we should ignore.As the catenary system is one of the most important parts of the power traction system,the catenary system should always be in its level of excellent performance in order to make sure the steadiness of the high-speed train.However,the complexity of the catenary system makes the causes of malfunction various.Additionally,the catenary system is placed in open space without any back-up devices,which result in its vulnerability to the environment.Thus,the catenary system is the weakest component of the power traction system.If the healthy conditions of the catenary system can be accessed,and predict its residual life,not only we are able to improve the reliability of high speed train,but also reduce the chance of accidents.This thesis is based on the catenary system of Qingyuan-Guangzhou high speed railway,of which the data are used to extract characteristic parameters of the catenary system.Deeper researches about the performance degradation assessment and estimation of repair time have conducted.Firstly,the characteristic data of the catenary system and performance degradation patterns are analyzed.After treating the raw data,the dynamic and statistic parameters are obtained,from which the characteristic parameters of the catenary system are extracted.According to the typical curve of system performance degradation built up with failure reports and work logs of catenary system,the number of healthy states is fixed.Secondly,the property of the catenary system has combined with the theory of the TimeVarying State Transition Probability of Continuous Hidden Semi-Markov Model(CHSMM)in order to build up the framework of the catenary system’s degradation model and estimation of repair time.Considering the special properties of the catenary system,the parameters of CHSMM have been modified accordingly.Then,the estimation of catenary system’s repair time is planned.To make the model fit to the real conditions,new parameters are introduced to describe different degradation paces in different stages because the rate of degradation of the catenary system is not always the same.Lastly,the characteristic parameters of the catenary system are regarded as input of the model,which makes the assessment and the estimation of repair time possible.And the model has finally been proven to output results of higher precision through comparing the result given by the model and the real one.