Research On Risk Evaluation Of Unsafe Events Of High-speed Railway Traffic Dispatching System Based On Cloud Model

With the improvement of the living standard of the people in our country,the demand for traffic travel is increasing.As the main travel mode of the long distance travel,the high speed railway has been paid much attention to.As the core part of high-speed railway,the dispatching system of high-speed railway plays a vital role in the safe and stable operation of high-speed railway.This paper,taking the unsafe events of the high speed railway dispatching system as the research object,combines the theory of systematics,the theory of risk management and the theory of cloud model to evaluate the risk of the unsafe events of the train dispatching system.The main contents are as follows:(1)Summarize the structure and function of the high-speed railway traffic dispatching system,define the research scope of the high-speed railway traffic dispatching system,and analyze and summarize the characteristics of the dispatching command of the high-speed railway.Introduce the risk concept,risk characteristics,and risk composition elements.This paper compares common risk analysis methods,reviews their advantages and disadvantages in detail,and then introduces a risk assessment method based on cloud model,and analyzes the adaptability and effectiveness of the model.(2)Study on risk evolution of unsafe incidents in high-speed railway traffic dispatching system.A detailed analysis and summary of the influencing factors on the influencing factors of high-speed railway train dispatching unsafety events,including personnel,equipment and environmental factors.Statistics and analysis of typical cases of high-speed railway accidents from 2009 to 2015 show that the highest risk of human risk factors occurs.The complex network theory was used to study the cycle propagation characteristics of high-speed railway train scheduling accidents,and the evolution of the accident risk causation was analyzed.The study was conducted on the example of the accidents caused by the rolling stock of railcars at Huolu Railway Station and the main causes of the accidents were analyzed.factor.(3)A detailed description of the basic definitions of the cloud model,digital features,classification,and cloud generators.On the basis of traditional AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods,a risk assessment model for unsafe incidents of high-speed railway traffic dispatching systems based on cloud models was proposed.The train dispatcher of the Chengdu Railway Bureau dispatched a train control speedlimit command.The general class D accident that delayed the train operation for 1 hour was verified as an example and was simulated using MATLAB.As a result,the risk level was “low risk”.(4)Aiming at the risk control strategy of high-speed railway traffic dispatching system,combined with the risk-based closed-loop management idea,it proposes a validation method for enhancing the effectiveness of risk control to ensure that the safety risk of high-speed rail traffic dispatching system is at an acceptable level.Explained the emergency disposal process of high-speed rail dispatching and commanding,and finally conducted a typical case analysis of the abnormal situation of high-speed railway.Taking the fall of buildings along the railway line to cause contact network faults as an example,it proposes disposal methods and summarizes experiences and lessons learned in the emergency treatment process.