Research On Q-precentile Life Analysis Method And Application Based On Subset Simulation

With the rapid development of science and technology and improvement of design and manufacturing level,technology products with high reliability and long service life are increasingly used in aerospace,military,electronics and communication technology field,how to ensure the high reliability of these products and the reliable life prediction is worthy of our in-depth study of the problem.Q-precentile life is a reliability index based on multipoint reliability evaluation,which can summarize the dynamic changes of the reliability of uncertain structures with time.How to improve the efficiency of Q-precentile life assessment is also worth exploring.In the analysis of Q-precentile life of a target,considering the uncertainty of structure and the uncertainty of manufacturing and operation process is the key problem to study the method of uncertain structure Q-precentile life analysis.This paper focuses on above key problems that need to be solved in the reliability research of highly reliable and long life technology products,and makes a systematic and in-depth research on product reliability assessment and reliable life prediction,and puts forward effective solutions.The specific research work and contribution mainly includes:(1)The structure and working principle of the harmonic reducer are introduced in detail.Considering the dynamic friction loss,stiffness nonlinearity and transmission error,a harmonic reducer dynamic model is established.In the actual production and application,due to the influence of manufacturing error and other uncertain factors,such as input power fluctuation,harmonic deceleration behavior is introduced the uncertainty,so we make simulation for dynamic behavior of harmonic reducer.(2)The subset simulation method in the treatment of single point reliability assessment can satisfy the high precision and high efficiency,but Q-precentile life design requires multi-point reliability information,the reliability calculation of every single point will start in the start state of the structure,resulting in low computational efficiency.This paper presents a solution to the problem of Q-precentile life analysis of uncertain structures based on the subset simulation method and the continuity characteristics of the structural state,and improves the computation efficiency while ensuring the accuracy of the calculation remains unchanged.(3)Considering the high reliability and long life characteristics of products,the reliability estimation of products is time-consuming and exhausting.This paper proposes a method based on subset simulation and copula function to improve the reliability of product life cycle through partial information at the same time of improving efficiency.