Kaifeng Drought Disaster Loss Evaiuation Research

Great Changes of China's agricultural climate resources on Climate Change,agricultural production activities only with suitable,can more fully and reasonably utilizing climatic resources and achieve sustainability of agricultural production.In order to ensure the food security of China under the background of climate change and improve agricultural capacities for disaster reduction,in time for the Government decision-making at all levels offer letter.Paper to Kaifeng city for research district,in on Kaifeng city of meteorological changes features analysis of based Shang,to typical crop winter wheat summer corn for focus analysis object,focus discussion has climate changes on winter wheat and summer corn production of effect,combined Kaifeng city local of drought information,established Kaifeng City agricultural drought disaster risk assessment model,last established has economic disaster loss assessment model,on Kaifeng city winter wheat summer corn drought loss for forecast.This study provides technical support for scientific and efficient management of drought in Kaifeng city.This article includes the following:(1)Study on variation of climate in Kaifeng city.Select representative climate characteristic elements,such as precipitation,temperature,Sunshine hours,changes in wind speed,humidity index,linear trend method is used,the cumulative departures from curve,sliding t Kaifeng city,inspection method,and Mann-Kendall method of wavelet analysis to climate change trends,approximate time of time sequence mutation,mutation process,whether by mutation testing,mutation analysis,periodic change of an area.Results showed that the Kaifeng city's annual precipitation,annual wind speed downward trend,annual accumulated temperature,the annual number of sunshine hours is on the rise.There are 4 distinct cycle variation of annual precipitation,respectively,5A,8A,15 A,22A time scale,2012 catastrophe began years of annual precipitation.Annual accumulated temperature catastrophe year 1993 annual sunshine there are 2 cycle variation,5A,22 A,respectively the time scale,Kaifeng mutation years wind speed begins as the 1974 year.Climate in Kaifeng city in recent 50 years in sub-humid and semi-arid,prone,Kaifeng city in autumn and winter seasons drought prone to drought in autumn and winter.(2)Based on the time series study of arid meteorological disaster loss assessment of crop.Studies of winter wheat and summer maize in Kaifeng city,using Lagrange interpolation and linear moving average method of winter wheat and summer maize in quantitative assessment of disaster losses.Results showed that using Lagrange interpolation method for quantitative assessment of disaster losses in the actual output of winter wheat higher,shown positive growth for some years,but low loss rate of the corresponding year.In different years of disaster loss affected by meteorological factors and the impact of agricultural production technology,are quite different.90 in summer maize yield in repeatedly changing,loss of 536 kg/hm2 near.Linear moving average method for quantitative assessment of disaster losses in the smallest year 1997 winter wheat affected by meteorological disasters for years,its relative meteorological yield of 171.72kg/hm2.Actual yields of summer maize in summer corn yield trend year by year during the 2006-2013 stability.2006 relative declining trend of meteorological yield percentages in a straight line,but corn yields appeared to stabilize some of his contemporaries,and summer corn yield trends,with the level of agricultural production,weather is not the main factor affecting summer maize yield.(3)Research on drought risk assessment model is established.First,using information diffusion theory,based on grain yield and drought-affected rates of impact indicators,establishing agricultural drought risk analysis model based on drought results in a loss.Results show that agriculture in the city of Kaifeng city light,medium and heavy frequency 1.5?2.2,respectively,an exceptionally dry years,2.2?7 years,9-18 of 36 and a case.In addition,the use of risk theory,analytic,Fisher optimum split method,GIS technology,risk,exposure,vulnerability and formation mechanism of drought resistance ability based on drought risk assessment of agricultural drought hazard index system and evaluation model.Results showed that the Kaifeng city Qi and low risk in drought areas,weishi County in lower-risk areas,in lankao in risk areas,in Kaifeng County and tongxu County in high risk areas.Finally,consider the authenticity and integrity of data collection,combined with the actual situation of Kaifeng,evaluation indicators,established in Kaifeng economic loss assessment model.Results showed that the district,Kaifeng economic losses between 10-25 Yuan/mu of winter wheat,in Kaifeng district of summer maize in economic losses between 15-41 Yuan/MU.