Prediction Of Occurrence Degrees Of Chilo Suppressalis (Walker) And Study On The Trapping Effect Of Five Single Wavelength Insecticidal Lamps On Several Agricultural Pests

Chile suppressalis (Walker) is the most serious insect pests in Fushun County. In this paper, by using the Chilo suppressalis (Walker)'s lamp test historical data during 2000 to 2015 of the Fushun County Plant Protection Station accumulated and the historical meteorological data from 2000 to 2015 of Zigong City Meteorological Bureau provided.we analyzed the dynamic of Chilo suppressalis under lamp and studied on the occurrence degree forecast of Chilo suppressalis in Fushun County.and established the relevant models trough the variance analysis period extrapolation, the Markoy chain prediction method, contingency table analysis, multivariate linear regression analysis. Moreover, comparison of five single-wavelength solar insecticidal lamp trapping effect to the main pests on rice.corn and underground. Obtain the following main results:1. In Fushun County.Chilo suppressalis began in mid-March and disappeared In early August.It occurred two generations a year, both the single peak type, the peak period of the first generation is early April to mid, the peak period of the second generation is mid June to late.2. By using the Chilo suppressalis's lamp test historical data during 2000 to 2015 and the historical meteorological data of Fushun County. established four kinds of the occurrence degree of Chilo suppressalis forecast model. And return test.The return test coincidence rate by variance analysis period extrapolation is 75%. it shows that Chilo suppressalis in Fushun County occurred in a very long time is a cycle of concussion. The return test coincidence rate by the Markov chain prediction method is 60%. it shows that the Markov chain prediction method is not good for the long-term prediction of the occurrence degree of Chilo suppressalis. The return test coincidence rate by contingency table analysis is 75%. it shows that the fitting degree of this method is good, it can be used for forecasting the occurrence degree of Chilo suppressalis in Fushun County.This study established a multiple linear regression model of Chilo suppressalis occurrence quantity and meteorological factors by multivariate linear regression analysis: y= 1.703x1+0.359x2+0.157x3-0.94x4-2.296x5+201.101x1 is the temperature of the last ten days of February, x2 is the temperature of the last ten days of March, x3 is the temperature of the middle ten days of April, x4 is the rainfall of the middle ten days of December in last year, x5 is the humidity of the the middle ten days of April.The complex correlation of the regression equation coefficient is 0.899,reached extremely significant level. The return test coincidence rate is 81.25%, is the highest rate among all methods, it shows that the multiple linear regression model can be used for forecasting the occurrence degree of Chilo suppressalis in Fushun County.3. comparison of trapping effects of five single-wavelength vibration type solar energy insecticidal lamp whose wavelength is respectively 350 nm,375 nm and 395 nm,405 nm and 411 nm on Chilo suppressali, Sesamia inferens,Pyrausta nubilalis and soil insect include Agrotis ypsilon Rottemberg, Gryllotalpa, Elateridae.The results shows, the optimal wavelength of the trapping effects on Chilo suppressalis, Sesamia inferens, soil insect is 405nm. the optimal wavelength of effects on Pyrausta nubilalis is 411nm. Carry out comprehensive comparative analysis through the fuzzy mathematics evaluation method. The number of weighted insect attraction of 350 nm,375 nm and 395 nm,405 nm and 411 nm is respectively 144.11?142.37?190.53?226.39?178.25. It shows that the optimal wavelength of the comprehensive trapping effect on several agricultural pests is 405nm.