Rice Growth Simulation Under Climate Change Scenarios In The Yichun Area

The growth of crops is closely related to climate change.Today,global warming is an indisputable fact,which greatly affects the growth of crops.With the growth of the world's population,economic development and living standards,on the one hand,human beings increase food production to meet basic human survival.Needs,on the other hand also use food to produce a variety of non-staple food to improve the quality of life.Our country is an agricultural country,but its self-sufficiency rate of grain is less than 90%.Simulation studies the impact of climate change on crop growth and yield in the future,contribute to development of social production planning and dealing with negative measures,in order to ensure food security in China to provide theoretical support.Based on the analysis of Yi Chun area in recent 20 years?1995-2015?,early rice and late rice growth period of meteorological elements,based on the analysis of the meteorological elements change impact on rice growth.In addition,the application of AquaCrop model to simulate the Yi Chun city early rice and late rice under different rainfall reliability,elevated temperature and CO₂ concentration under the condition of future growth process,and analyzes the impact of climate warming on biomass and yield of rice.Mainly the following results and conclusions.?1?during the study period,1995-2015,Yi Chun area early rice and late rice growth period the highest temperature and minimum temperature are showing a rising trend,the highest temperature and minimum temperature of early rice and late rice respectively rise by 0.538?/10 a,0.406?/10 a and 0.555?/10 a,0.464?/10a;While precipitation and sunshine time presents the downward trend,precipitation and sunshine time of early rice and late rice respectively fell 3.42mm/a,6.77mm/a and 4.72d/10 a,11.12 d/10 a.?2?in the backdrop of the global temperature rise,as the climate warming ahead of rice growth period is obvious;The rice growth affected by temperature rise significantly,and make the rice a growing threat by the high temperature stress.?3?through the AquaCrop model simulation yi chun city early rice and late rice production and the study found that:?1?the biomass and yield of early rice and late rice increased with the rainfall increased,in dry year,Ping Shui Nian and wet year early rice yield reached 7.659t/ha and 7.796t/ha and 8.401t/ha,late rice respectively the three typical annual output of 6.481t/ha and 6.634t/ha and 6.647t/ha.?2?under the condition of the temperature is not high,the biomass and yield of rice with higher temperatures increased,but the temperature reached a certain height,biomass and yield are not change,even lower.Early rice in 10 years,20 years and 50 years?in 2015 as a benchmark?analog output are 8.659 t/ha,late rice simulated yield in 10 years' time is 4.684 t/ha,after 20 years and 50 years production unchanged were 4.775 t/ha.?3?under the condition of elevated CO₂ concentration,the biomass and yield of rice increased with the increase of CO₂ concentration and.Of early rice simulated yield in 10 years,20 years later,and 50 years were 8.976 t/ha and 9.2262 t/ha and 9.938 t/ha,late rice simulated yield in 10 years,20 years and 50 years were 5.333t/ha and 5.512t/ha and 5.908t/ha.?4?under the condition of temperature and CO₂ concentration and elevated,the change trend of rice biomass and yield of elevated CO₂ and only a basic change under the condition of the same.