The Impact Of Climate Change On Winter Wheat Yield In China

Climate change has always been the hottest topic in the world.Energy-related carbon emissions are the main source of man-made greenhouse gases and also the main cause of global warming.According to preliminary data of carbon emissions released by the international energy agency on March 16th,2016,the global coal consumption in year 2005 dropped by about 2.3%,and this is the biggest drop in 45 years.Especially in China,the carbon emissions in 2015 in the energy industry are significantly lower,fell by 1.5%,and it's the second year in a row that China's coal use reduced.By the international energy agency's executive director,Mr.Birol said,reducing the use of coal is the main reason for decline in China's carbon dioxide emissions.Agricultural production is the root of the human society survival and national economic development,but also a big industry most sensitive to climate change.Climate warming will increase crop respiration consumption,accelerate the process of crop growth,and eventually result reduce in production.Climate warming also makes the plant diseases' and insect pests' growth periods shorten,and the harm of plant diseases and insect pests on crops will be longer.Climate wanning has led to the north side of the winter wheat security planting in China moving north.The frequent extreme disaster events caused by climate change also seriously threat to agricultural production in China.Many domestic scholars in the study of the impact of climate change on food crops,mainly using statistical analysis method and experimental method of science,as well as the methods of using the crop model.But there aren't many scholars using production function and other economic models to study the problem,and few production function are used to study the effects of climate change on wheat production.So this paper applies the method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study the impact of climate change on winter wheat yield in the major wheat producing areas in China.The main research contents include:First,analyze the status of the research on the impact of climate change on agricultural production at home and abroad by using the method of literature review;Second,analyze the annual average temperature,Precipitation and sunshine duration variation characteristics from year 1980 to 2012 in the major wheat producing areas,and also analyze the change of the monthly average temperature,precipitation and sunshine duration of the winter wheat growth period;Third,analyze the change trends of the total output,planting areas and the yield of winter wheat from year 1980 to 2012 in the major wheat producing areas;Fourth,select the average monthly temperature,precipitation and sunshine duration during the winter wheat growing period,as well as the labor,machinery,fertilizer and other inputs,to establish the extended C-D production function.Then use the extended C-D production function to analyze the impact of climate change on winter wheat yield in the major wheat producing areas,and also analyze the influence of the differences between different regions within the major wheat producing areas.The main research conclusions are as follows:First,from year 1980 to 2012,the annual average temperature of the major wheat producing areas and the monthly average temperature of the winter wheat growth period rised on the whole,the annual average precipitation and the monthly average precipitation of the winter wheat growth period presented a very slow rise trend,the annual sunshine duration and the monthly average sunshine duration of the winter wheat growth period showed a trend of decline;Second,the total output,planting areas and the yield of winter wheat from year 1980 to 2012 in the major wheat producing areas in general go growth trend;Third,the climate change in major wheat producing areas has a positive impact on winter wheat yield,but there are differences between different regions.The temperature has a positive influence on the yield of winter wheat in east China and north China,but has a negative impact in the central south,southwest and northwest regions,and the deepest influence degree is in the southwest.The precipitation in the north,central south and northwest regions has a positive effect on winter wheat yield,but in the east and southwest regions has a negative effect.Central south and southwest regions,sunshine duration has a positive effect on winter wheat yield,but there is a negative impact in east,north and northwest regions.According to the research results,this paper gives some countermeasures and suggestions to the response to climate change and increase grain production.First,cultivate or introduce new varieties with resistance.Second,strengthen the rural education to improve the ability of farmers to tackle climate change.Third,strengthen the construction and maintenance of irrigation and water conservancy facilities,improve the crop irrigation.Fourth,reasonably adjust the layout of the winter wheat.