| Climate change has effect on winter wheat's physiological and biochemical processes from many aspects, and then changes the yield. In order to do the research on the effect that climate change has on winter wheat in Jing-Jin-Ji area, reasonably plan winter wheat's planting area and strategy, provide reliable planting suggestions,this essay analyses and evaluates winter wheat growing climate environment from 1961-2010 by winter wheat north boundary variation, integrated climate indicator and climate suitability. Data used by this essay contains meteorological data(temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, the highest temperature, the lowest temperature, relative air humidity),altitude data of Jing-Jin-Ji's 25 sites,winter wheat's yield, MODIS NDVI image composited in 16 days. The methods of data processing and analysis contain regression analysis, correlation analysis,average relative variability, fuzzy mathematics membership function. This study unfolds the area through ArcGIS and then analyses spatial distribution and variation feature.The results shows that:(1) Winter wheat north boundary has obviously moved northward. From 1961-2010, winter wheat planting area increased by the rate of 2*10 m2/10a approximately,simulated north boundary moved northward by the rate of 0.043°/10a, practical north boundary moved northward by the rate of 0.046°/10a.Correlation coefficient between simulated north boundary and practical north boundary is 0.68. Both simulated north boundary and practical north boundary have southwest - northeast direction.In the next 50 years, winter wheat north boundary will continue moving northward about 0.2°.(2) Integrated climate indicator calculated by 12 indicators based on temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration reflects the effect that meteorological element accumulation value has on winter wheat growing climate environment.Integrated climate indicator in Jing-Jin-Ji area decreases gradually from south to north. Southern area has better climate environment. Climate tendency rate decreases gradually from southwest to northeast. Integrated climate indicator rises quickly in the southwest. Average Climate tendency rate in the southwest is 18.41/10a.Most area's average relative variability is below 2. Integral climate change is not significant except Baoding surrounding area.The highest average relative variability reaches 10.03.Future Jing-Jin-Ji southern planting area priority should be west-east-middle in turn.(3) Integral winter wheat climate suitability is in high level. Temperature suitability is moderate. Precipitation suitability is low. Sunshine suitability is high,and keeps stable around 0.9. Climate suitability descends first and then rises during growth period under the lead of temperature and precipitation. In terms of spatial distribution, climate suitability decreases gradually from south to west. Tendency rate of climate suitability has a highest center in the north of Langfang, and decreases from the center to the surrounding. Temperature suitability and accumulated temperature suitability show a reverse distribution. |
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