Response To Climate Change Of Winter Wheat Growth Period And Potential Productivity In Different Producing Areas Of Gansu Province

The climate in different producing areas of Gansu province is relatively dry,crop production in the region affected by climate obviously,and rainfall is so relatively scarce that it becomes the fragile zone of ecological environment,thus the effection of agricultural production is very significant due to climate warming.In this study,focusing on changes of temperature,water,light and climate suitability of winter wheat in different producing areas of Gansu province from 1981 to 2010,both winter wheat phenophases and potential productivity,as well as the responses of winter wheat phenophases to climate change,and put forward the measures to improve the ability of winter wheat to climate change in different producing areas of Gansu province.The purpose of this study is to provide countermeasures for the negative effects of climate change on crop potential,use climate resources rationally,reduce and adapt to the impact of climate change on agriculture,to provide scientific basis for improving crop yield in this region.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）The average suitability of water,temperature,light and climate of Winter Wheat in different producing areas of Gansu province were respectively 0.51,0.72,0.66.In the last 30 years,the climate suitability of Longzhong,Longdong and Longnan regions in the winter wheat planting area were respectively0.60,0.58,0.56,and Longdong and Longnan regions were all increased by 0.01/10a（P<0.01,P<0.05）.Specific to the various meteorological elements,the average water suitability of Longzhong,Longdong and Longnan ware 0.50,0.52 and 0.52;and the average temperature suitability of them ware 0.63,0.82 and 0.72;the average light intensity of them ware 0.74,0.65 and 0.58 respectively.（2）During 1981^-2010,the climate of winter wheat growing season in different producing areas of Gansu province showed a trend of warming and drying,laying in the increase of temperature and sunshine hours,as well as the decrease ofprecipitation.The growth period of winter wheat in three regions showed a shortened trend,in which the Longzhong station and Longnan region were respectively reduced by 7.9d/10a（P<0.01）and 9.8d/10a（P<0.01）.The sowing time was delayed at three stations,but the time of flowering stage and maturing stage showed advanced trend by different degrees.The temperature was dominant,and the precipitation was the least with effects of three kinds of meteorological factors on the phenological period of winter wheat.（3）The light and temperature production potential of winter wheat for an average of 126.9（94.4¹56.9）×102kg·hm^-2 in different producing areas of Gansu province and had a rising trend,the average increase was 1.3（0.91¹.71）×102kg·hm^-2·（10a）^-1,It was largest in the matter of the increasing trend of light and temperature production potential and the average light and temperature production potential in the Longnan area,but the light and temperature production potential stability best in Longzhong.（4）Precipitation had more and more restrict with the yield potential of winter wheat,and the middle part of Gansu Province for winter wheat planting was the main area under the restriction of temperature and precipitation.The yield potential of Longzhong,Longdong and Longnan were 37.3%,44.9% and 49.3% respectively under the temperature limitation,and the realization rate of yield potential were respectively 13.6%,32.7% and 27.6% under precipitation limitation.（5）The realization rate of light,temperature and climatic production potential were 31.2% and 85.6% in Longdong,46.7% and 72.6% in Longdong,41.7% and71.7% in Longnan,respectively.The rate of realization of new varieties increased by more than 5 percentage points.Besides,application of mulching cultivation,drought resistance and fertilizer technology are also be the effective ways of solving water issues and improving the actual productivity of winter wheat under the background of climate change.