Seasonal Variation Dynamic Analysis Of Outpatients With Psychiatric Disorders By Using Circle Distribution Combined With Seasonal Trend Model

Objctive: To provide reference for arrangement of medical resoures on the treatment of psychiatric disorders by analysing of seasonal distribution and dynamic change rule of outpatients at a large comprehensive hospital in Nanchang.Methods:We collected 3-year(from 2013 to 2015)psychiatric disorders cases information at a large comprehensive hospital in Nanchang,and according to “International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Prob1 ems,Tenth Revision”(ICD-10)diagnostic criteria on mental and behavioural disorders diagnosis classification,used descriptive analysis and circular distribution to analysis monthy and seasonal regularity of psychiatric disorders,by moving average trend excluding method and least square method to establish season model,calculate the season index and linear regression equation,using the mathematical model to predict seasonal distribution of the outpatient visits in 2016.Results:(1)This study collected 77973 cases,included 76661 cases of psychiatric disorders,which conforms to the psychiatric diagnosis,male and female sex ratio was 0.87:1,the average age of psychiatric disorders was(38.94±16.29),the most numbers of psychiatric disorders was 20-50 age group.The four categories of disease diagnosis distribution,F20-F29(Schizophrenia,schizotypal and delusional disorders)(16.69%),F30-F39(Mood [affective] disorders)(25.11%),F40-F48(Neurotic,stress-related and somatoform disorders)(39.90%),F50-F59(Behavioural syndromes associated with physiological disturbances and physical factors)(14.18%),which were mainly medical disease.(2)Psychiatric disorders visits was the trough form January to February,also form June to July.The peak was in the months(form March to April,form August to September),which more concentrated in spring and autumn season(52.12%),mood disorders and neurosis related disorders visits were more concentrated in summer and autumn,schizophrenia more than in spring.(3)There was a trend of centralization from 2013 to 2015 of psychiatric disorders occurrence and total(Z > 2.99,P < 0.05),the mean angel of total was 226.56 degree,equivalent to August 18(P<0.05).F30-F39(Mood [affective] disorders)and F40-F48(Neurotic,stress-related and somatoform disorders),which had the mean angles(P<0.05),all equivalent to August.F20-F29(Schizophrenia,schizotypal and delusional disorders)and F50-F59(Behavioural syndromes associated with physiological disturbances and physical factors),3 years total concentration trend was not statistically significant(P>0.05).(4)By moving average trend excluding method,the adjusted quarter season index were 94.92%,104.47%,101.24%,99.37%.The linear regression equation for Yc= 4277.25+323.93 t.To predict outpatient clinic visits of each season in 2016.Results were 8057,9206,9249,9401,total 35913.Conclusion:(1)Psychiatric disorders had obvious seasonal variations in Nanchang area,highly incidence in August,the bipolar disorder and neurotic disorder in August for high incidence in patients,schizophrenia more than in spring.(2)Psychiatric disorders outpatient quantity in a rising trend,which had seasonal variations-spring and summer for the peak reason,autumn and winter for the trough-applying the appropriate mathematical model can be short-term prediction for different seasonal of mental disease,formulating a reasonable control strategy of it.