Cause Analysis Of Urban Road Traffic Accident Based On Bayesian Network

With the rapid growth of economy and the increase of vehicles,the rate of urban road traffic accidents is rising.It not only poses a threat to the safety of people's lives,but also causes losses to personal property and social economy.Therefore,frequent traffic accidents have become an important problem to be solved urgently.The analysis of the causes of traffic accidents is the key to reduce the accident rate and reduce the frequency of accidents.The paper combines four basic traffic elements of human,vehicle,road and environment,using statistical analysis and data mining tools to explore the causes of road traffic accidents.We select Guiyang city which economy is relatively backward in the central region of and the economically developed eastern area of Shanghai city as the research object,using two city traffic accident data of 2015,and using the pyspider crawler system Python access to external Internet data,firstly to collect the different sources of data and the multiple tables together,re-encoding in accordance with the keyword of them.Through statistical analysis and visualization of data to show the effects of related factors of traffic accidents,Analysing the time of the accident,the perpetrators of age and driving experience,and the accident vehicle brand word cloud chart analysis,and the accident prone road thermal map of Shanghai andGuiyang City.Secondly,using the multi class Logistic regression model,based on the type of accident caused by negligence,to explore the importance of various factors under different types of traffic accidents.Then,combining with visual analysis and multi classification results of the Logistic regression model,variable feature selection and build the Bias network model,to explore the complex relationship between traffic accident types and influencing factors and internal influence,finding out the accident chain;Based on the analysis results and combined with the actual situation,in-depth analysis of the specific reasons for traffic accidents,provide the theoretical reference for the prevention and settlement of traffic accidents.Finally,combining with the analysis results of the thesis,the causes of road traffic accidents are summarized and concluded from macro perspective and reality from the macro and micro level advice,to provide the reference for the government decision-making.