Research On The Safety Situation Assessment Method Of Road Traffic

With the rapid progress of transportation,the development of road constructing and motorizing process has been quickened,traffic safety problems become more prominent.Large number of traffic accidents have hindered the development of transportation,resulted in huge economy loss,and had a bad effect on society.In order to improve the conditions that might compromise traffic safety,and to decrease the happening of traffic accident effectively,it is necessary to develop the research on traffic safety situation assessment that can aware of the traffic safety situation and its trends.In this paper,from the aspects of human,vehicle,road and environment,the factors that affect traffic safety situation are deeply analyzed.Some issues of the assessment index selection are explored,and the assessment index system is then established.Subjective and objective analysis methods are combined to determine weight assignment of index system.On the basis of the discussion on the features of different assessment methods,the feasibility of matter element extension method on road traffic safety situation assessment is explored,and the traffic safety situation assessment model is constructed based on the foregoing theory.With the application of Grey Markov theory,the prediction model for comprehensive targets and case study are researched respectively.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Part one is the introduction,which states the study background,objectives,national and international research status and research route.(2)The concept of traffic situation assessment on road is introduced.The influential factors on traffic safety situation are analyzed,and the index system of traffic safety situation assessment is constructed.(3)The methods of the way to determine the weight of each index is introduced,based on this,an improved and comprehensive weight model is presented.(4)On basis of the study of applying matter element extension theory into traffic safety situation assessment,the road traffic safety situation assessment model is established.(5)According to the research on Grey Markov forecasting model that apply to predict the eigenvalues of traffic safety situation,the forecasting models is established.(6)An application example on S202 provincial road in Dazhou,Sichuan province is given to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.