| Negative list management is originated in the United States.NAFTA came into force in 1994,which is considered to be the earliest adopter of the negative list of free trade agreements.China has not formally introduced a negative list system,but in 2013 Shanghai FTA pilot started the negative list system and then the 18 th CCP Third Plenary Session clearly states “developing a negative list for market access which means other than the list of prohibitions and restrictions of investment management industry,field,business,etc.that State Department expressly listed,all types of market players have equal access according to the law”.That made "Negative list" to become one of the hottest vocabulary of economics in recent years.In fact,the negative list is not mysterious,which can be simply generalized “no law is to prohibit”.Positive list caused excessive monopoly and control in many services areas.Different from positive list,the negative list management provisions that except the listed investment field all other areas are permitted to invest without the need of government approval.And thus negative list encourages micro-economic entities to invest the services which were over controlled in the past and to invest the emerging industries which are not considered by government,and so as to optimize the investment structure and industrial structure adjustment.Comprehensively considered the basis of related literatures and the availability of data,this thesis uses the introduction of “Administrative Licensing Law” in 2004 as an alternative indicator variables of negative list management,taking advantage of China's 31 provincial panel data from 1997 to 2014,constructing a standard difference in difference model,in order to empirically study the relationship of negative list management,incremental investment and industrial restructuring.We find that negative list management is actually a market-based instrument to promote industrial restructuring by incremental investment on the whole way.However,Negative list prefer to promote a positive effect on speed of industrial restructuring but the effect is uncertain in the quality of industrial restructuring.Further subdivided into secondary and tertiary industries to analysis,we find the main cause of negative list management creating uncertainty on the quality of industrial restructuring is that negative list management is in favor of the tertiary industry by incremental investment to realize the “bonus structure” in the industrial structure adjustment,but on the whole it cannot effectively eliminate the “structural burden” produced in the industrial structure adjustment.This thesis argues that the incremental investment stimulated by negative list management is different from the Chinese past government-led incremental investment.The negative list management is a market-driven increment investing rule,conducive to increasing investment services,reducing manufacturing investment and promoting the development of innovative and strategic new industries.Negative list can adjust and optimize the structure of incremental investment to promote China's industrial structure upgrading and adjustment to a certain extent.But the negative list system does not directly play a role to revitalize the stock,which cannot resolve the growing Chinese production overcapacity contradiction.As a result,China cannot solve the problem of unbalanced industrial structure fundamentally by the negative list system.The article suggests China's industrial restructuring should take the forced way which mainly relies on market mechanisms to adjust the stock with optimized incremental from the perspective of government and the market building a complementary symbiotic relationship. |
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