Prediction Of China's Population Based On The Universal Two-Child Policy

As an important carrier of sustainable economy and social development,population is the foundation of the whole society.Scientific predictions of future population growth will bring great reference to macro-economic and social planning.For China,as a country of the biggest population,the research on its population policy is worthwhile.Previous literatures on population growth prediction are generally based on time-series analysis.However,the time-series analysis is based on a hypothesis that the external environment which can affects the growth of population does not change significantly.But the new two-child policy in China provides us a new circumstance in which the traditional method can't be appropriate for the prediction any more.In addition,with the development of social economy,the penetration of the one-child policy and the improvement of education,every family will be more rational in making decision about whether to have one more child.Previous studies have already proved that the fertility costs and fertility utility have an important impact in making fertility decision.Based on this point,this paper firstly introduces the data envelopment analysis into the field of population prediction from the perspective of fertility utility which is calculated through the data base of disposable income per capita,health expenditure pre capital and living resource per capita.In order to obtain the population,we build a new model to impose restriction to the fertility utility.Then we can get the upper limit of the growth of population under a certain level of living.Beyond that,this paper continues to predict the growth of population based on some traditional time-series analysis model and historical data,and takes these results and the results obtained by data envelopment analysis into comparison.It is found that the latter result is more in line with the general rate of the growth of population.Finally based on the results,we find that the new policy would not lead to baby boom.But it would promote the increase of fertility in a more modest way.On the basis,we propose some suggestions about how to put the new policy into effect for the government and make it to be more prepared for the new situation.