Analysis On The Regional Differences And Influencing Factors Of The Birth Rate In China

The quantity and quality of the population is crucial to the prosperity of the country and nation,and the birth rate is a key indicator of the future fertility level.Since the implementation of the "single two-child" policy in 2013,China's fertility level has not reached the expected results,from the time to be long,from the space to discuss the imbalance of population distribution,and sustainable development between population and resources and environment,provide constructive suggestions and advice for the development of population.The paper is based on the theory of population statistics,spatial regions,and using ArcGIS,GeoDa and R,to reveal the static spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of birth rate in China.Four time sections of 2007,2010,2013 and 2016 were selected.Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,the spatial evolution characteristics,regional differences and influencing factors of the population birth rate in China are studied.After discussion,the following conclusions are obtained:(1)The birth rate basically stable at around 12 ‰ on temporal evolution,in the process of space evolution has obvious uneven clustering phenomena of the distribution of high and low are not randomly distributed.The global Moran's I is higher than zero and is increasing gradually,indicating that the global positive correlation of population birth rate is increasing gradually.The results of local spatial autocorrelation test showed that the birth rate of HighHigh mainly concentrated in cities such as Guangxi,Guangdong,Hunan,Hubei,Jiangxi,Anhui,Fujian,Chongqing,Yunnan and so on.Low-Low mainly concentrated in Jilin,Liaoning,Heilongjiang,Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shanghai and Inner Mongolia.The hot spots in the High-High type are mainly concentrated in Guangxi,Guangdong,Hubei,Jiangxi and Hunan.The cold spots in the Low-Low type are mainly the three northeastern provinces and the North China region.(2)Through the decomposition of the Theil index showed that the regional differences of China's birth rate significantly and showed a "U" shape development,the differences within the region is far greater than the regional differences before 2016,and regional difference is mainly affected by the northern regional differences,followed by the difference between east area,finally affected by small differences reduce the western and central china.In the western region,the difference of the year gradually tends to be unified,indicating that the western region is relatively stable in the population flow.(3)The spatial error model can better fit the relationship between the birth rate and its influencing factors.The study found that economic,educational,family and social security have a significant impact on the birth rate of the population,of which the economy,education and family have the greatest impact.GDP represents the economic development in a certain range of rate is positively correlated with birth,whereas a negative correlation;with the improvement of education,a negative correlation between the birth rate and the number of college students increased gradually;in the social security maternity insurance to promote the positive development of China's population,and diversification the endowment insurance has hindered the growth rate of population.