A Study On The Influencing Factors Of China’s Inter Provincial Birth Rate Based On Spatial Panel Model

Population is the core element of a country’s development,and the birth rate is an important indicator that reflects the balance of generations of the country’s population.According to the 2022 population data from the National Bureau of Statistics,China’s natural population growth rate is less than zero,and the population is facing dual pressures of increasing aging and fewer children,which greatly affects the country’s future development.Based on this,this article first uses Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory,Leibenstein’s cost utility theory,Becker’s fertility theory and Bongaarts’ s six factor theory to start from the relationship between income and fertility costs,and proposes a hypothesis that the relationship between income increase and fertility rate is a repeatedly fluctuating relationship.With the sharp increase in fertility and living costs,residents’ income ultimately assumes a negative correlation with fertility rate.Then,from a global and local perspective,a descriptive analysis of the dynamic changes and spatiotemporal effects of China’s birth rate is conducted.Finally,a spatial econometric model is established,and a semi-parametric spatial econometric model is constructed by introducing non-parametric terms to empirically analyze the influencing factors of the birth rate.The research results are as follows:(1)Based on the analysis of the birth rate data of 31 provinces and cities(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in China from 2000 to 2021,it is found that the overall population birth rate in China presents a downward trend,with a non random and unbalanced spatial distribution.The global Moran index values are all greater than 0,which indicates that China’s population birth rate has a global spatial positive correlation.The local Moran scatter chart shows that over time,more and more provinces and cities are located in high high and low low concentration areas,indicating that the population birth rate has a spatial aggregation.According to the population birth rate distribution map and LISA aggregation map,China’s population birth rate is characterized by high in the south and low in the north,and high in the west and low in the east.(2)By introducing the birth rate and related indicators of 30 provinces and cities in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and Tibet)from 2000 to 2021,and by using relevant statistical tests,it can be concluded that the spatial Dubin model can better represent the impact of various factors on the birth rate.At the same time,compared to traditional linear panel models,spatial econometric models have a better fit for data.The measurement results show that there is a significant correlation between the elderly dependency ratio,human capital,average price per unit area of commercial housing,urbanization rate,maternity insurance coverage rate,and population birth rate.Among them,the coverage rate of maternity insurance has a promoting effect on the rise of the population birth rate,while human capital,the dependency ratio of the elderly,and the urbanization rate have an inhibiting effect on the rise of the population birth rate.However,the average price per unit area of commercial housing has a positive correlation with the population birth rate,which is inconsistent with the fact.At the same time,the spatial lag of the elderly dependency ratio,the average annual income level of residents,and the level of financial and educational investment have no significant impact on the birth rate,indicating that the spatial Dubin model has certain limitations.Therefore,the model is further optimized by setting the annual average income of residents as a nonparametric item,and constructing a spatial semi parametric Dubin model.The measurement results show that the introduction of the semi parametric method improves the fitting accuracy of the model,and transforms the average price per unit area of commercial housing from a positive coefficient in the parametric model to a negative coefficient in the semi parametric model.At the same time,the partial derivative diagram of the annual average income of residents also conforms to the hypothesis proposed in the article.Finally,based on the results of the above research,corresponding policies and suggestions are proposed to improve China’s birth rate.