The Multivariate And Multidimensional Risk Model And Its Application In Risk Assessment Of Software Development

Software development is one of the most important stages in the Systems Development Life Cycle. Because there are a lot of risks in software development stage, assess these risks seems especially important. The aim of risk assessment is to determine the possible losses by risks, which in the whole software development. The risk assessment of software development could reduce the losses when companies conducting software development jobs. Because of the software development risks with strong randomness, complexity, variability, for those who obey a certain distribution but periodic change, the traditional risk assessment methods, such as method of risk table, have ineffectively solve the problem. In this case, in order to solve the problem, there is a necessary to invent a new model, which can make effectively to evaluate these kind of complex risks.This paper borrows from relevant disciplines, such as mathematical statistics and so on, starting from the complex conditions of software development risks, set up a multivariate and multidimensional risk model which could effectively solve these problems, by means of calculating the mathematical expectation of mounting risk loss,which represent the expect loss degree of software development risks in the model,and successively adjust the mathematical expectation through bonus-malus coefficient and Bühlmann-Straub credibility coefficient, thus it improve the accuracy of the result for risk assessment. Then through gross profit minus the adjusted mathematical expectation, use the standardization function to standard in valuations, the standard valuations means influence degree of software development risks, finally standard valuations for one risk divided by cumulative standard valuations for whole software development risks, the results are the percentage of loss by different risks, defining it as risk contribution rate. According to different risk contribution rate of software development risks, companies could determine the focus of risk-aversion, thereby reducing funds to prevent risks, can also enhancing accuracy and comprehensiveness of risk-aversion, it provide a basis for companies who planning detailed risk assessment plans in software development stage.