The Characteristics Research Of Inflation Persistence In China

In the process of economic development, price stability has long-term close relations with enterprise production and operation, and the economic system of investment, consumption, savings, etc., eventually promotes the development of national economy steady and orderly. Inflation persistence refers to the rate of inflation return to the time required to smooth level in the process of subject to random disturbance factors impact. In recent years, more and more monetary policy experts began to realize the importance of inflation persistence, the level of inflation persistence and applied to the simulation of monetary policy has become the hot issue in the field of economic research.Based on the above research background, this article first starts from the macro environment and micro foundation background conditions of inflation persistence, based on the improved new Keynesian Philips curve, we study inflation persistence time-varying characteristics in our country. First of all, in this paper the time series data of China's inflation rate has carried on the structure of the breakpoint inspection, found in the third quarter of 1994, the first quarter of 2008, the first quarter of 2009 have structural breakpoints, then build the Philips curve under the perspective of adaptive learning. Under the condition of constant coefficient learning hypothesis, the article use the state space model to measure level of inflation persistence in our country from 1999Q4-2014Q4. From the persistence of inflation change direction, you can see that China's inflation persistence change presents a downward trend after rising first. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the level of inflation persistence is slowly declining trend, but from the overall inflation persistence levels are still high. The adaptive learning expected instead of rational expectations hypothesis in the Philips curve, the research results show that the adaptive learning form expectations of inflation is an impact on the actual inflation rate, but in terms of influence, and it can be seen that adaptive learning generated expected inflation to the influence of the actual inflation rate is lesser, basic it in 0.40.Based on China's inflation persistence level measurement, this paper further analyzes the monetary policy transmission under the framework of persistent inflation trends. Among them, using SVAR model analyzes the monetary policy impact on inflation, output demand shock and impact of persistent effect and determines its contribution. The research results show that the lag of inflation at the same time is affected by the positive expected inflation, output gap, in general, after inflation hit from random, the lag of the strongest reaction,2-6 period will still be positive reaction has been reduced a lot, after 9 issue of inflation by themselves lagging impact response of the basic of 0. Based on the above results, the government must always pay attention to the impact of inflation persistence in the process of managing inflation, and guide public expectations correctly, only in this way can reduce the level of inflation effectively.