Analysis Of The Leading Causal Influence From Consumption To Macro Economy

Economic growth means the increase of country's wealth,the increase of employment opportunities,the improvement of people's living standards,etc.So the research on the influence factors of economic growth has been a hot issue in macroeconomics.Consumption,investment and net exports as a driving economic growth of the three driving carriage,has been the core of the national macroeconomic regulation and control variables.Net exports,namely,the difference between exports and imports.If the development of various economic indicators is not balanced and unreasonable,it will seriously affect the sustainable development of the national economy.So it is very meaningful to find out the main factors that affect the economic growth.This paper analyzes it from the perspective of causality.The causal relationship reflects the antecedents and consequences of two time series,reveals the law of development between things,is currently a hot topic in many scientific research.This paper mainly discusses the classical Granger causality(GC)method and the new causal relationship(NC)method.Through the concrete model,the paper compares the above two causal methods,and finds that NC method is better than GC method to reveal the true causal relationship strength between any two time series.The main content of this paper is to find out the factor that affects the GDP mostly from four key macroeconomic variables as consumption,investment,imports and exports,thus provide important reference information for the formulation of macroeconomic coordination development policies.We first analyze the correlation between the variables and GDP,and then analyze the causality from the variables to GDP in the regression model using GC and NC method,and lastly analyze the instaneous influence(?)from the variables to GDP in the linear model.Through the analysis of the data of 29 countries,it can be found:1)In most countries,the correlation between consumption among all factors and GDP is the strongest.From the changing trend curve of raw data,one can see that GDP and consumption have obvious synchronization.2)Based on two variables model and multivariable model,most of the countries show that NC value from consumption among all factors to GDP is the biggest,butthe results obtained by the GC method are mostly not consistently with the economic facts.3)In most of the country,the model coefficient is the largest,and the CI value is also the largest,so the current influence from consumption to GDP is the largest.Together we can get the conclusion that consumption is the leading factor of economic growth,and NC method is better than GC method to reveal the true causal relationship strength between the variables.Therefore,we have reason to believe that NC method will be more widely used in the field of economics and other fields.