| Infrastructure construction is a necessary process of the development of a country, the current our country is in the key stage of development for building a well-off society in an all-round way, setting up perfect convenient infrastructure is the basic requirement of improving people's living level. In recent years, our country launched a massive infrastructure wave since 2008. On the one hand, Government to the revitalization of the economic downturn after the financial crisis,but also to improve our public service infrastructure, enhance the level of public service, to meet the necessary requirement of rapid economic development. However, Based facilities construction investment high,and risk big and long payback period of natural features, determine its construction cannot just rely on the public sector spending; At the same time, the rapid development of our country economy makes people have accumulated a lot of wealth, people generally tend to be long-term stable investment income; Therefore, in order to rationally utilize residents wealth, fully mobilize the enthusiasm of private capital, enhancing the level of government public service at the same time, our country vigorously develop the PPP model to encourage private capital into the construction of infrastructure.The first part of this article mainly elaborates the BOT infrastructure project economic attribute and the introduction of franchise and economic system. The attribute determines the nature of the project in the construction of infrastructure can adopt the franchise mode.Concession is the government grant a franchise to the private sector, to allow the private sector to invest in the public areas, and to independently operate within a certain period of time, to recover the investment and get the corresponding compensation, this period is called the concession period. Concession period setting includes two parts, one is the finite model,the other is the length of time.The second department mainly studies is the influence factors of concession period decision and concession period limit mode.Along with the more perfect of infrastructure construction, screening and selection of the projects need for national economic evaluation and financial evaluation, The main discussed in this paper is state the project financial evaluation on the basis of meeting the national economic. His paper is an extension of the predecessors' theory. First, private sector requirements during the franchise period recoup their investment profits. Secondly, due to the economic life of the project was limited, the government departments in the whole life cycle to meet the net present value greater than zero is the second condition. If the government subsidies in concession period, then after the transfer of the project, the government needs to meet withdrew subsidies in the rest of the operating time. This theory is put forward for the first time has its practical significance, more conducive to easing the burden on the government, providing higher quality of public services.According to this theory, this paper uses Monte Carlo simulation for case analysis.Due to the uniqueness of the Monte Carlo simulation method, to satisfy both sides of the given conditions, the model will generate several alternative number of year of the concession period. How to choose the most appropriate in this a few ways of solution? This article first proposed by probability as the index to measure risk.The greater the probability,the smaller the risk.Therefore, when the excess of net present value greater than zero probability of the project company and government departments equals the net present value greater than zero probability, both have the same risk. Choose which from selection of the concession period is equal to the probability of fixed number of year. In this paper, the viewpoint and decision method for the project of concession period is the decision provides reasonable, basic operational method. |
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