The Impact Of Population Aging On The Domestic Tourism In China

In 2000, China’s has officially entered the aging society. According to the prediction of China Silver Industry Association, China will step into a stable stage with severe aging degree by then. Population is the principal part for consumption and the population structure is naturally the crucial factor that affects the consumption structure upgrading. The "Thirteen Five" plan proposes "to develop tourism vigorously". As the kind of developmental and enjoyment consumption, the development of tourism consumption is not only in line with the requirements of updating the consumption structure, but may become a new resource of economic growth. Therefore, it’s necessary to explore the relationship between the population aging and domestic tourism consumption.Based on theoretical and empirical analyses, the paper combines the Life Cycle Theory with Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Theory to interpret the travel motivation of the elderly and analyzes the impact mechanism of population aging on domestic tourism development. Constructing the GMM (difference GMM & system GMM) model and 2SLS instrumental variables estimation method by using a panel data of 2000-2014, the paper studies the impact of population aging on the domestic tourism in the whole China and different regions of the country. The empirical results indicate that:Firstly, the population aging has a significant positive impact on domestic tourism development in China. Secondly, the increasing of the per capita levels of education and urbanization rate is significantly promoting the development of domestic tourism. Thirdly, SARS and other serve infections disease remains a serious obstacle to the development of domestic tourism, and the government should strengthen supervision and take preventive measures in time. Finally, the impact of population aging on domestic tourism consumption is different in different regions from a regional perspective. Population aging has greater influence on the development of domestic tourism in the eastern region. Besides, population aging hindered the development of domestic tourism in middle and west regions and the impact is not significant in the western region.Based on the above empirical findings, to promote the rapid development of China’s domestic tourism industry in the context of population aging, we may proceed from the following aspects. Firstly, integrate local tourism resources to develop multi-level tourism products to meet the needs of the elderly and accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure to promote the development of senior tourism. Guide the elderly people to transform domestic tourism consumption concept moderately. Secondly, improve the national urbanization rate to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, and tap the rural tourism consumption potential of the senior population. Finally, increase investment in education in the middle and western region to promote coordinated regional development, and increase people’s income of poverty and under-developed areas.