Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Of High-end Equipment Manufacturing Industry Based On Rbf Neural Network

High-end equipment manufacturing industry is the cutting-edge high frontier of the equipment manufacturing industry, is one of'the strategic emerging industries', and is also the emerging industry fostered and developed by'China's manufacturing 2025'. Although under the policy support, the high-end equipment manufacturing industry has developed rapidly, there are still many problems. In recent years, there have been some enterprises in the industry including CSSC, CNEG, HEIBAO AUTO that have been specially treated by China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), which show the ability for the high-end equipment manufacturing industry to control financial risks is far behind their own needs, therefore, under the current situation, the research on the financial risks of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry has important significance.Firstly, combining the causes and characteristics of the financial risk of high-end equipment manufacturing industry, this paper selects the 2012-2014 financial data of 68 listing companies in the high-end equipment manufacturing industry, and selects 32 corresponding financial indicators as the basic financial indicators of financial risk early warning from the profitability, solvency and operational capacity, working capital management ability, growth ability, cash flow management, R&D investment and government subsidies and other aspects; and then introduces the EVA concept into the early warning model, uses EVA value as criterion of abnormal financial status so as to solve the problem that the effective classification cannot be carried out due to the lack of ST samples in the high-end equipment manufacturing enterprises, and provide a new idea for the research of financial risk warning of the industry for ST enterprises with fewer samples in the future; and finally constructs the neural network prediction model using classification results of EVA value and the 22 selected variables?Through the empirical study, it has been found that EVA value of more than half of the sample enterprises is less than 0, and the number of companies among the 68 listed companies of which the EVA value was less than 0 in 2014 was higher than that in the previous two years, indicating that the financial risks for the high-end equipment manufacturing industry was on the rise, Secondly, significant differences of financial indicators exist in the financial status of normal group and sub healthy group enterprises, these financial indicators are mainly concentrated in the profit, operating, cash flow management and growth ability, There are many problems exist in both the financial status of normal group and sub healthy group enterprises, such as too long cash flow period, high operating cost rate and insufficient solvency of cash flow and so on. Thirdly, the forecast accuracy of RBF neural network model which built based on 22 selected financial indexes reach more than 85%,10% higher than the forecast accuracy 75% of BP neural network, this model is of good warning effect on financial risk of high-end equipment manufacturing industry.