Research On Regional Financial Risk Early Warning Of Shandong Province Based On RBF Neural Network

The prevention and resolution of financial risks is an important issue in the world.Regional financial risk has strong linkage and dissemination.When it accumulates to a certain extent and breaks through the controllable boundary,it will lead to cross-regional financial turbulence and even financial crisis.Therefore,warning of regional financial risks timely and keeping regional and systemic financial risks from occurring have become an important part of academic research.In this paper,the regional financial risk early warning model of Shandong Province is constructed,and the regional financial risk is quantitatively studied,which could provide decision-making reference for relevant departments.Firstly,the theory of financial risk early-warning,the index system of risk early-warning and the method of financial risk early-warning model are systematically sorted out.On this basis,the influencing factors of financial risk in Shandong Province are analyzed from three perspectives of finance,economy and government finance.Secondly,the relevant risk is related to the relevant indicators of macroeconomic environment,micro-economic environment and micro-financial development.Finally,the regional financial risk early warning indicator system of Shandong Province,which consists of 20 indicators,is determined.Then,based on RBF neural network model,a regional financial risk early warning model is constructed.The index system is dimensionally reduced and classified by principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis.On this basis,the RBF neural network model is used to train and simulate the index data of 2004-2016.After the completion of the training,using the data from 2017 early warn of financial risks in 2018.Empirical research results show:(1)the regional financial risk of Shandong Province was high from 2005 to 2007 and peaks was in 2007;(2)the regional financial risk of Shandong Province declined from 2007 to 2008,but it is still in a state of vigilance;(3)the regional financial risk of Shandong Province shows a decreasing trend from 2009 to2014 and has been in a state of security;(4)After 2015,the rising pressure of regionalfinancial risks in Shandong Province has increased,and in 2018,Shandong Province entered a state of vigilance again.Finally,from the perspectives of maintaining the sustained and healthy development of the national economy,reducing bank risks and government financial risks,and strengthening the construction of risk early warning system,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations for preventing and defusing regional financial risks in Shandong Province.