Exploration Of The Purchase Timing Choice On Business Aircraft Through Quantitative Analysis

Since recent years, with the improvement of the domestic people's life and the explosive development of the business trip, the needs for air transportation are becoming more and more imminent. Focusing on this broad market, many airlines are all trying to expand their own capacity of fleets, looking forward to sharing a cup of soup from this large cake. If we pay some attention on the listed airlines, the issuance of the announcements for purchasing aircrafts will be found every time to cause the market turmoil. These deals with large amounts of money not only catch enough eyes, but also make the outside world doubt whether the timing of these aircraft deals is suitable or not.This thesis firstly discusses the internal value of an A330 wide body aircraft through traditional discounted cash flow model based on the practical market data. Then it introduces timing choice option in order to explore the purchase timing of this aircraft from quantitative analysis.This thesis also summarizes the time points of aircraft deals by domestic listed airlines within recently ten years and discusses the suitability of these timing.One aircraft deal often involves a large amount of money in the air transportation as a capital intensive industry. Appropriate purchase timing can not only save tremendous foreign exchange capital, but has much benefit to the sustainable efficient operation by the airlines as well from a micro level. Through the study of this thesis, the author hopes to have a more rational understanding on future domestic aircraft purchase timing and do a meaningful help to the positive development of domestic air transportation industry.