Study On The Personal Credit Risk Assessment Of Commercial Banks

Credit is not only an indispensable part of modern economic and social movement, but also the inevitable outcome of social and economic development. The business of individual consumption loan is booming in recent decades, such as personal housing mortgage loans, loan automobile, education loans, credit cards, etc, and the scale of which is gradually increasing. Although the business of individual consumption loan has become the most important business of international commercial banks, the existence of the relatively dispersed personal credit risks makes many international commercial banks, which seek for huge profit margins, flinch. Under such conditions, relevant scholars in China began to explore and establish the Personal Credit Risk Assessment System which accords with banking business features and makes decision based on data.This paper first introduces the concept of personal consumption credit of commercial bank and analyzes several risk points, and then elaborates the theory and method of personal credit score. It also reveals the historical origin and current status of the personal credit score in the commercial bank's consumer credit. And then it finds out the confusion of the development of China's commercial banks through comparing and analyzing the development history and current status of personal credit rating of domestic commercial banks with that of foreign commercial banks. In view of the existing problems of the personal credit risk assessment in commercial banks, analysis of the key factors that affect the performance of individual consumer credit business is necessary. Referencing domestic and international existing index system, exploring the selection of commercial bank's personal credit risk evaluation index under China's national conditions, and making use of commercial banks in China's real loan default and non default data sample, through the Logistic regression method, the calculation model of default probability is constructed. Take China Minsheng Bank Shijiazhuang Branch as an example, the empirical analysis of the establishment of the Logistic personal credit scoring model, the analysis result shows that, the model can be used as an ideal tool in displaying the probability of default. Finally, putting forward the countermeasures and suggestions on improvement, an effective strategy to construct the personal credit risk evaluation system of commercial banks is proposed, including the establishment of a unified personal credit risk evaluation system standards and operational norms, the establishment of personal consumption credit approval authority dynamic management and decision-making mechanism to establish and perfect our country's personal credit system, to speed up our country's lawmaking on personal consumption credit business and the improvement of relevant laws. Make commercial banks take the profitability of the business and development into account, and continuously improve their ability in managing credit risk.