The Research On Risk Assessment Of Personal Consumption Credit In Commercial Banks

Commercial Banks' personal consumption loan business can help individuals to solve temporary capital difficulties and make full use of social idle funds.Its characteristics of short term and simple procedures are welcomed by customers,but it also brings higher risks to Banks,making them not obvious advantages in today's fierce competition.Therefore,it is urgent to construct a scientific and effective risk assessment model of commercial Banks' personal consumption credit for effective risk prediction and prevention,which is also the main research content of this paper.Firstly,this paper analyzes and studies the relevant concepts and theories of personal consumption loan.Starting from various aspects such as personal consumption and credit risk influencing factors,it understands the current research status and the existing deficiencies,and combines the development status of loan business to determine the method for constructing the risk assessment model of personal consumption credit.Then,based on theoretical methods and combined with my own internship experience,I finally determined the three first-level indicators of personal characteristics,family background and relevant factors of the loan bank,as well as 16 second-level indicators such as age and education background.Then,according to the characteristics of the index,the paper chooses the combination of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to build the final model.Finally,the comprehensive score is calculated by fuzzy synthesis.Through calculation and research,it is found that personal income level,family financial leverage ratio and other indicators have a greater impact on the generation of credit risk,while the household labor force ratio,the bank's number of transactions and other indicators play a smaller role.At the same time,the concept of "risk threshold" is also introduced in this paper.For the risk levels with different degrees,four ranges of the model comprehensive score S<0.6097,S is between 0.6097(inclusive)and 0.8489,between 0.8489(inclusive)and 0.9355,and S 0.9355,respectively corresponding to the four credit grades of poor,good,medium and excellent.After the model is built,the validity of the evaluation model prediction is tested by an example.By introducing the real case data of ten customers of m bank for application detection and analysis,the comparison shows that the risk assessmentmodel of personal consumption credit constructed in this paper is obviously superior to the original method in index selection and processing,credit score result processing and grade division.Finally,according to a series of research results of this paper,this paper provides relevant countermeasures and Suggestions for the government,commercial Banks and consumers respectively from the perspective of business handling,aiming at the credit risk problems that may occur when commercial Banks handle personal consumption loans.