Risk Early Warning Research On China's Local Government Debt Structure

The economy of China has experienced rapid progresses over the past few decades, and the scale of its cities has also increased tremendously. These national developments bring weights to the debt structure of the Chinese local governments, and it has become a burden to the nation's recent efforts toward the restructuring of the country's economic structure. Having a healthy local government debt structure is essential to the maintenance of a functional economic structure in China. The research on local government debt structure and early warning on the related risks have important theoretical implications and empirical values.On the basis of the existing research, we statistic current situation of China's local government debt about source of debt, debt structure and so on. Secondly, we select 14 indicators which reflect the risk of current situation and set the thresholds of security domain, risk early warning domain and crisis domains. Then in this research, we built our local government debt risk early warning model using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and extenics method. We tested our model's validity using the debt statistics from the Jiangsu province's government. Last but not least, we put forward related suggestions in four aspects.