Research About Constructing A Government Debt Risk Early Warning Index System To H City

In recent years, Greece, Iceland, Dubai and other western countries suffer thesovereign debt crisis, the economy was negatively affected. More and more governmentsrealize that debt can promote economic development on one hand, on the other hand,inappropriate debt financing may aggravate local government debt burden, or even triggera debt crisis. In transition period, our local government is responsible to promote oureconomical society to develop sustainable; however, because the property ownership andauthority are mismatched, the local government tries to use the debt to cover the financialgap. Currently, our country is short of local government debt management system andmechanism; to the non-standard debt borrowing, our local government lack the strongregulation, which leading to local government debt risk become higher and higher. In orderto prevent and reduce the debt risk, we must face up to risks, strengthen the governmentdebt management, strengthen the early warning and control risks effectively. Therefore,researching the early warning of local government debt risk is meaningful and important.This research paper uses reference from both domestic and foreign local governmentdebt risks early warning index system research results, considers the current condition of Hcity’s government, construct the H city government debt risk early warning index system,and uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to build the H city government debt riskearly warning model. In this paper, the main research contents are the followings:（1）Introduction. This chapter analyzes the background, purpose and significance of topics,discusses the current research status of domestic and foreign literature, expounds thetechnology roadmap of the study, and determines the the corresponding research method.（2）Theory of building the local government debt risk early warning index system. Thischapter explains the theory of building the local government debt risk early warning indexsystem from three aspects, which are the cause of our local government debt, localgovernment debt risk early warning theory, fuzzy mathematics theory; therefore, providingtheoretical basis for the study of below.（3）Basic overview of the H City’s governmentdebt. This chapter introduces the basic situation of H city’s government debt, analysis thecurrent debt problems and analyze the cause of the debt risks, therefore, providing thereality basis to build the next debt risk early warning index system.（4）Construction of Hcity’s government debt risk early warning index system. This chapter first introduces the principle of building H city’s government debt risk early warning index system, and thenunder the guidance of this principle, combined with the H city’s government debt problemsto build early warning index system.(5) Construction of H city’s government debt riskearly warning model. This chapter uses the construction of early warning index system asthe basis and uses the principle of multiple step by step fuzzy comprehensive evaluationmethod to establish the debt risk early warning model; finally, we get the result andanalyze the result of H city’s government debt risk early warning.(6) Countermeasures andSuggestions for H city’s government debt risk early warning. To the evaluation of theconstructed debt risk early warning model, this chapter gives the countermeasures andsuggestions to strengthen the risk early warning and prevent debt risk.(7)Summary. Thischapter summarized the research results, the shortcomings and the future researchdirection.