Research On Credit Risk Of Commercial Banks Based On Local Government Debt Expansion

In the third quarter of 2008 the outbreak of the financial crisis in the United States, then intensified, significant impact on C hina's economy. To maintain the growth of the domestic economy, the central government unveiled a 4 trillion yuan investment plan. In order to coordinate the central policy, the local government invested a lot of in infrastructure construction. With the supported of the central policy and local governments actively provided a number of supporting construction funds, local government debt has increased dramatically. Local go vernment debt debt generated mainly by the local financing platform. Local government financing platform of debt capital mainly comes from bank loans. In 2013, the rapid expansion of local government debt and it caused commercial bank credit risk caused the attention of the branch. Research on the relationship between local government debt expansion and the commercial bank credit risk, explore the reasons for the formation of risk and the resolving countermeasure, has the extremely important theory significance and practical significance.Application of statistical data and charts, this paper analysed an overview of local government debt in C hina. Using the model of empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and comparative analysis methods, to study the local government debt expansion led to commercial bank credit risk. First of all, an overview of local government debt in C hina are expounded, analyses the classification, the structure of local government debt and its expansion of drivers. The second, on the basis of analyzing the commercial bank credit expansion characteristics and the structure of credit assets, for local government debt expansion caused by commercial bank credit risk is analyzed. Then, commercial bank credit risk caused by the local governme nt debt expansion has carried on the empirical analysis. In consideration of the money supply, interest rates, economic growth and exchange rate conditions, by constructing panel data model to analyze "for government bonds" to the influence degree of the non-performing loans of commercial Banks. The last, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical results, puts forward some countermeasures to resolve the commercial bank credit risk caused by local government debt expansion.In this paper, the results of the study indicate: in consideration of the money supply, exchange rate, growth rate and exchange rate conditions, "for government bonds" significant influence on the non-performing loans of commercial Banks. Local government debt scale in the short term rapid expansion led to the increase of the commercial bank credit risk. Especially the state-owned commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio are influenced by local government debt scale rapid expansion in the most obvious.