Research On The Influencing Factors Of Local Government Debt Risk

Local government debt is a kind of debt borrowed by local governments to develop regional economy,build infrastructure and other public affairs,invest in education,and improve peopleundefineds livelihood.Perfecting the management system of local government debt is an important task to promote regional economic development and urbanization and promote the balance of local fiscal revenue and expenditure and sustainable development.In this paper,the meaning and characteristics of the local government debt are summarized and summarized,and the causes and the relationship between the effects of the local government debt risk are analyzed theoretically,and the research index system and the path relationship of the local government debt risk research are constructed.A propositional hypothesis is proposed.Furthermore,the collected data were analyzed by statistical factor analysis,and then the Pool OLS model,Fixed effect panel model,Random effect panel model,Hausmann test,Two-Way fixed effects panel model were used to test the model.Finally,by comparing the empirical results and differences of each panel model,the bidirectional fixed effect model is selected,and the relevant analysis conclusions are obtained.The results show that the income consumption factors,such as land transfer fee,fiscal decentralization,market consumption level and urbanization rate,have significant positive effects on debt risk,especially land transfer fee and fiscal decentralization.The financial investment factors composed of fixed assets investment,urban population density and financial gap also play a positive role in debt risk.The per capita GDP growth rate,which represents the economic development factor,has no significant impact on debt risk.Then,the paper proposes to improve the fiscal decentralization system,avoid the single GDP index evaluation standard of local government,improve the early-warning mechanism of local government debt risk to prevent the existing debt risk,and strengthen the standardized management of land at the same time.In the process of economic development and urbanization,we should cultivate the construction of local main tax sources,actively expand financing channels and tools,and carry out cooperation between government and society.