Empirical Research On Expectations Of RMB Exchange Rate Based On The Offshore Market And Monetary Supply

Since joining the WTO, our country economy has obtained the fast development, but due to the continuous trade deficit and external pressure of the authorities, the process of RMB exchange rate has been on the rise.A strengthening yuan is not conducive to export, so as to cause adverse effect to the national economy.At the same time, the appreciation of the renminbi will also make the increase of the domestic monetary demand and rising interest rates, which may impede the effective implementation of the monetary policy.On the other hand, the appreciation of the renminbi could also promote the inflows of foreign capital,increase the money supply, influence slow relaxation of monetary policy at this stage.Monetary policy as the key of the macroeconomic regulation and control goal is in a very important position.For the sake of the thorough analysis in China offshore market expectations of RMB exchange rate influence on onshore money supply, this paper is studied from two aspects of theory and practice.Theoretical analysis includes two parts : Exogenous money supply theory and theory of endogenous money supply.It analysis the relationship between the RMB exchange rate expectations and money supply.It is introduced into the uncovered interest rate parity theory and join the monetary model of exchange rate forecast.This part mainly describe the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and exchange rate expectations related situation,summarizes the monetary authorities in our country monetary policy phases of operation,and to analyze the characteristics of China’s monetary policy operation is presented. The current is still existing problems and we should research the corresponding key points and difficulties of monetary policy.In empirical analysis section,the offshore market one-month NDF1 M, three-month NDF3 M,onshore market at the spot exchange rate’s construction of RMB exchange rate expectations index.The renminbi exchange rate expectations and onshore money supply rate of change as the research object, by building the VAR model, we empirical analysis the relationship between offshore market expectations of RMB exchange rate and the the money supply.In the current economic situation, our country should establish the stable exchange rate target,keep the exchange rate appreciation expectations of the money supply increases, thereby giving impetus to the growth of domestic economy.