| The economy of Sichuan province has greatly changed since the Reform and Opening, the per capital GDP rose to 29608 yuan in 2012 from 261 yuan in 1978, and in the meanwhile, GDP also rose to 2.38728 trillion yuan at an annual growth rate of 15.37 percent, it is obvious that the improvement of Sichuan's general economic conditions is amazing. However, as the magazine of ?Economic Hot Spot Analysis? has mentioned, in 2012, the 181 counties of Sichuan endured a great gap in economy, and divided them into four categories according the level of well-off they have achieved, and nearly seventy percent of the county are classified as low-income areas. And 592 counties were listed as national key poverty reduction target by the State Council at the end of 2014, Sichuan's Cangxi?Ganzi?Meigu are included. The Rural Work Committee of Sichuan Provincial Party Committee made an immediate response that they would carried out policies appeal the whole society to solve the question of poverty, and intended help them free away poverty in 2020. In order to respond to changes in the international situation and to promote international exchange and cooperation, the Party central committee made the strategic plan of "the Belt and Road" in 2013, and Sichuan was included, with the intention to make it to be a major transportation hub and economic hinterland.Appropriate regional economic gap can be beneficial to strength the collaboration between counties sometimes, and the pressure may be transformed into power, which will be able to achieve common development to some degree. But the long-term economic disparities will certainly affect the economic efficiency of the whole society, with result of too much talent, technology, and other advantages of resources flew into developed regions and less developed regions will suffer in the further deterioration in economy for the effluent of talent and technology. The invalid configuration of resources, will result in the growing economic disparities between regions and the reduction of the overall level of social welfare, which is not conductive to social progress and contrary to the goal of "Thirteen Five Plan" building a moderately prosperous society. So, the urgent problem that Sichuan is confronted with is reduce the economic disparities between counties, but what are the characteristics of this difference? How to make a quantitative description over it? Which factors may influence it? How so solve it? So, those are the main aspect of this paper is being studied.By reference to many related literature made at home and abroad, I combed the theory of regional economic growth in detail, and with the consideration of Sichuan, find the appropriate theory can be applied in Sichuan, and made an empirical analysis on Sichuan's county economic growth at the basis of new developed regional economic growth theory and the theory of spatial econometrics, obtaining a more reasonable and reliable result eventually. And relying on Sichuan's county economic data, operated an empirical analysis with an appropriate theoretical model and analyzed the result in-depth, found out the dynamic mechanism of the county's economic growth. What's more, I made constructive suggestions for the existing problems with order to provide reference for solving the imbalance in Sichuan's county economic growth, and provide effective methods and paths for achieving further economic development in Sichuan.1. Purpose and Content of This PaperThrough theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the county economic growth in Sichuan, the purpose of this paper intending to achieve are listed as bellows: ?Make a quantitative description of the current situation of county economic development in Sichuan, analyze the spatial pattern and grasp the county's economic development situation. ?Then build and select appropriate spatial panel data model at the basis of county economic data range from 2003 to 2012, and determine the dynamic mechanism of county economic growth based on the model's results. ?Set the five economic zones in Sichuan province as the research object, build and select appropriate spatial panel data model at the basis of county's economic data of each zone, make empirical analysis apparently, with the aim to find out the dynamic mechanism of their county economic growth.The content of this paper can be separated into five parts:Firstly, make an introduction of the background and significance of this paper, and the purpose and content. The second part is literature review, make the main classification and combing previous research literature, and made remarks over them. The third part is the summary of the theoretical basis and modeling methods of this paper, mainly introduce the theoretical basis when domestic and foreign scholars make research on regional economic growth, make a brief description over its development and evolution, sort them into some parts and make remarks, put forward the theoretical basis that this paper relying on. Also make a brief introduction of the related spatial econometrics theories, including the concept and test method of spatial autocorrelation, the models applicable to the cross-section and panel data and its like. The fourth part is the empirical analysis, including the quantitative description over the spatial pattern of Sichuan's county economy, and the empirical analysis of the dynamic mechanism of county economic growth. The last part is the conclusion, which is used to summarize the main conclusions of this paper, and put forward policy recommendations, and finally note the shortcomings and future research directions of this study.2. The Main Conclusion of This PaperThrough the empirical analysis, we can safely come to this conclusions:? The county economic development of Sichuan is unbalanced, which manifested that the central, eastern and southern of Sichuan are more developed, but the western is less developed. ?There is a strong positive spatial autocorrelation in Sichuan's county economy, that the economic situation of each county is not showing completely random state but affect each other, showing a serious agglomeration. ?Through the empirical analysis, we can find seven explanatory variables are obvious, including SOCEX, INDOUTP, HYG, and its like, but BUDEX, HIGWAY and EDU failed to pass significant test. ?Another empirical analysis is operated which set the "Five Economic Zone" in Sichuan province as the research object, we can find that SOCEX and INDOUTP are obvious impact of Chengdu Zone, RUREMP and EDU are obvious impact of Northeast Sichuan Zone, EMP and INDOUTP are obvious impact of Southern Sichuan Zone.3. The Features of This PaperThe features of this paper including:? In terms of perspective, we consider the spatial effects between regions being neglected by traditional regional economic growth theory, which generally assume regions are independent and homogeneous, so as to get a more convincing result.? In terms of object, we set the 181 counties of Sichuan as object, make analysis over the county inside-depth at the basis of spatial effect, fully explore the relationship between counties, and then get a more credible and scientific result. The present study on regional economic growth are mainly focus on province or city, seldom specified into county, which will conceal the difference between county, and there are bias in this results. Therefore, this paper will minimize the object into county, which improve the above shortcomings.? In terms of the research level, after the empirical analysis focus on 181 counties, we make a further analysis over the "Five Economic Zone", which is mainly considerate that they have different economic development focus and pattern, there must be differences in dynamic mechanism of county economic growth between those zones, and we will put forward different suggestions to those zones according to analytical results, which is of some reference value when the government make policies for the "Five Economic Zone". |
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