Research On The Impact Of Credit Rating On Bond Issue Spreads In China

With the 1841 American silk merchants for profit began to publish personal information to the public, which marks the start of credit form. Moody's, S & P and Fitch formed a situation of tripartite confrontation. In developed countries, credit rating is the guarantee of the smooth development of the economy, rating at that time began to gradually extended to developed countries, on the development of the financial industry plays a pivotal position, credit spread as a measure of one of the most important indexes of credit risk, the investment community and academia extensive attention and research.Rating industry of our country is developed with the rise in the bond market, initial starting in the 1980s in the 20th century. After 30 years of development,It has formed a certain scale, belong to domestic authoritative rating agencies, for their rating method and relatively complete rating system. The bond market, now in a stage of rapid development, in terms of quantity and variety are a qualitative improvement, the second bond market offering method, place, issue time characteristics, and so on are than in the past have improved significantly. But compared to the stock market, the bond market is still far behind the development of the scale, and accelerate the development of the bond market is often cannot do without the credit rating. Both complement and promote each other, the credit rating industry in China stand on the track of rapid development of the bond market is from the beginning of the embryonic form of the development to now more complete rating system, but more to oversea rating mechanism, our rating also has many disadvantages.In the rating of bond issuance spreads in the relevant literature, scholars on the influence factor analysis of issue spreads from the empirical, including macro and micro factors. This paper uses the historical literature of the model is improved, adding new variables in order to improve the fit of the model, to make the results more convincing, but also for the factors that affect China's rating of bond issuance spreads that.From 2010 to 2015 the bond data, to make an empirical analysis from the perspective of the issue of the spread. The bonds were screened using the improved "TIC" rating on the model to verify the impact of the various types of bonds.The paper is divided into six chapters, besides the introduction, the content of each chapter are as follows:The second chapter reviews the domestic and international literature review about the credit rating of the bond market;The third chapter is the overview of bond market and the credit rating industry in detail and understand the development history and the current development status, and pointed out the main problems of Chinese credit rating industry;The fourth chapter for the rating of the bond issue market influence statistical analysis, the analysis results show that all kinds of bonds issue rate and issuance spreads decreased with the increase of credit rating, rise with the reduction of the credit rating; then of representative of corporate bonds, according to a certain rule for screening and classification, respectively, to study credit rating (a debt rating and the main rating) on the credit spreads of significant analysis (using F and t test, studies have shown that rating industry in China in the bond market is efficient and has been a certain recognition of the vast number of investors and become their an important basis for investment decisions.The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis of the influence of the credit rating of the bond issuance spreads, because the earlier to obtain the credit rating will influence on the bond market, but do not know influence degree of the credit rating of the bond market, therefore on this issue, the quantitative research. This article from the credit rating of bonds issuance spreads the research to support the degree of influence on the bond market. The empirical results show that the issue of interest rate and debt rating and the main rating has significant negative correlation, influence degree by the coefficient of the absolute value of the decision.The sixth chapter summarizes the narrative and empirical conclusions, and puts forward some policy suggestions for the bond rating industry improved, in order to promote the development of China's bond rating industry.The innovation of this paper lies inFirst, the article in the existing model of bond pricing, namely the TIC model based on slightly improved, join the variable is guarantee, prepayment two variables, in order to improve the interpretation accuracy of the model, the more convincing;Second, according to bond (according to the WIND standard), four types of main bonds carry out quantitative and qualitative analysis using statistical analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis;Third, to enhance the amount of data, four categories of bonds from the period 2010-2015, make the results more convincing.Due to the limit of my ability and time, to the domestic and foreign literature I can not grasp comprehensively, also not been studied thoroughly, which is the first insufficient; in addition, in the model of innovation is to use the previous model, and no substantive changes, this is the second problem.