| Since the end of 1980 s, global warming has become a serious worldwide problem and hindered the sustainable development of society and economy. It brings a great challenge to the world and promotes various actions to cope with this climate change. Putting a price on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions is very important, which not only determines the cost of emission reduction, but also provides a signal for the economy to transfer from the high emissions, high energy consumption to the low emissions, low energy consumption. Carbon trading is considered to be the most effective economy means compared to other methods, for the total carbon emission is controlled by the government, and the carbon pricing is fluctuating according to the market demand. Moreover, the price of carbon emissions is an important indicator to measure the market efficiency and liquidity.In this paper, the price trend of the European Union(EU) carbon market is analyzed based on its daily trading data, covering the range from 2012 to 2015. In further, this period is divided into three stages, which are the adjustment stage, the positive policy rising stage and the target establishment stage of the emission reduction. Firstly the main influence factors of EU carbon market are analyzed, which includes three aspects: macroeconomic factors, energy price and policy factors. Then the role and necessity of the price regulation are discussed, and the advantages and disadvantages of five common government regulation strategies are compared, which are the lowest price guarantee regulation, upper and lower price limit regulation, quota set aside regulation, standard option regulation and light carbon offset regulation.In this paper, we study the price efficiency of the EU carbon market, which is divided into information efficiency, price discovery efficiency and hedging efficiency. Viewed from the information efficiency, the yields of carbon spot price in 2012 to 2014 does not possess the mean-reversion property, which reflects the risk of the current EU carbon market. Viewed from the price discovery efficiency, the carbon spot price and carbon future price in 2012 and 2014 do not have a co-integration relationship, but in 2013, the carbon further price shows its price-finding function. Viewed from the hedging efficiency, the hedging efficiency of the carbon furthers has the best performance in 2014, reflecting the reasonableness of using the carbon furthers to averse the market risk.This paper analyzes the current situation of Tianjin carbon trading market based on the aspects of government policy, mechanism design, price movements and etc., and some existing problems and shortcomings are pointed out simultaneously, including the low activity in Tianjin carbon trading market, the very loose regulation policy, the faultiness of the law system and so on. Learning from the experiences and lesson of EU carbon market development, we suggest Tianjin carbon market enforce a tighter carbon emission permits policy, and reduce the total carbon quota in the market gradually. At the same time, Tianjin could use a flexible "free&auction" quota allocation method to gradually increase the proportion of the auction rather than the free mode, so that the function of the market can take effective on these carbon emission-related companies. In specific, the price regulation ability of the carbon market can be greatly improved by solving the problems in the following four aspects, establishing the carbon market supervision mechanism, strengthening the relevant legal construction, the reasonable use of the price regulation strategy, and at last, promoting the construction of the carbon finance market. |
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