Driven Analysis Of The Dynamic Structure Of The Efficiency Of The EU Carbon Trading System

Global warming,sea-level rise and extreme weather increasing environmental problems threaten the development of human society,from the "Kyoto Protocol" to the"Paris agreement" that human society has reached a consensus on this historical mission to control greenhouse gas.In greenhouse gases,carbon dioxide emissions are the most harmful to the environment,so how to control carbon dioxide emissions has become the top priority of the Global Climate Governance agenda.EU-ETS as the world's largest carbon emissions trading system,in a leading position in the global carbon emissions trading system,up to now has gone through two stages,is in a critical period of third stages.The dynamic analysis of the market mechanism and the market transaction efficiency in the EU-ETS will provide an important reference for the practice of carbon dioxide emission reduction in the global,regional and national levels.The Council of the European Union divided EU-ETS into three stages:the first stage is the stage of trial operation,from the beginning of January 1,2005,to the end of December 31,2007;the second stage is the implementation phase,from January 1,2008 to December 31,2012;the third stage is to expand the responsibility stage,from January 1,2013 to December 31,2020.Based on the study of the EU-ETS on the related literature,the related theory of economics and the international carbon trading carbon emissions control evolution to be revealed,through the introduction of the EU-ETS on the pricing mechanism,price fluctuations in the three stages of analysis.In the EU carbon emissions allowance(EUA)of the spot price and futures price as the research object,through the VAR phase model construction,analyze the generalized pulse function and variance,the driving force to compare dynamic structure of the EU-ETS in three stages of the spot market and futures market,thus draws the following conclusions:first,there are the external effect of asymmetric EUA between spot market and futures market;second,there is a high correlation in the EU-ETS between spot market and futures market;third,the reform of the EU-ETS in the third stage compared to the second stage did not improve the efficiency of the market,but the carbon emissions trading market risks.This paper argues that the second stages of reform to expand the coverage of the auction and proportion,and the introduction of CDM and JI method,to a certain extent,improve market efficiency;in the third stage of reform in the country,after the cancellation of quota allocation plan,formulate carbon emissions trading quota and allocation of emissions reduction efficiency of top 10%enterprises based on the move,because the EU-ETS management lack relevant experience,the inner mechanism of carbon emissions,the efficiency of the market causes of understanding is not sufficient,failed to achieve the desired effect.Based on the EU-ETS reform and Practice on the advanced experience,combined with the practice of China's promotion of short carbon emissions trading pilot,proposed to build a unified national carbon emissions trading system and policy suggestions.