| Supply-chain finance, an effective way to finance for small and medium enterprises( SME), is attracting more attention from banks, SME, logistics enterprises, and other institutions. In recent years, with the increasing application of science and technologies such as internet and cloud computing to the financial field, a number of new supply-chain finance models and derivatives are born which on the other hand complicates the relevant business controlling, and even upgrades the possibility of risk explosion. Currently, news about those risks is frequent to see which brings banks huge losses. Therefore, a scientific and objective evaluation to the credit risks of supply-chain finance becomes the focus and difficulty for banks. It is also the foundation to support the supply-chain's implementation successfully, which contains a magnificent social, economic and practical value.On the basis of analysis of existing literature materials, research findings and practical operations, the essay illustrates the concepts and characteristics of supply-chain finance, and analyzes its credit risks. Then the essay constructs the credit risk evaluation model based on the fuzzy catastrophe theory and correspondent assessment index system. In the end, the essay testifies the feasibility of this model through a case study.Ways to evaluate the credit risks of supply-chain finance are numerous from the earliest subjectivity-driven experts grading method to today's intelligent algorithm and computer theory based non-linear measurement. The essay studies several different measurements and compares each other's advantages and disadvantages. Since the credit risk of supply-chain finance is complicated that indefinite characteristics of it like relativity, dynamics, fuzziness and mutability can cause unexpected transformation of risks. In addition to that, the traditional evaluation methods are somewhat limited. Therefore the catastrophe theory, a mathematics theory to study non-continuity changes, has certain applicability to these credit risks study. In the essay, a basic theoretical introduction to catastrophe theory and its mathematical model is explained. Thus, with the application of the theory, the essay constructs the fuzzy catastrophe based credit risks evaluation model for supply-chain finance. By the model, it can only judge from the ranking of each evaluation index, which effectively lowers the subjectivity of the assessment work and increases the accuracy and efficiency of the risk evaluation progress.By the above risk evaluation model, the essay combining the frequency statistical method and experts marking method filters the evaluation indexes of supply-chain finance credit. Then according to the establishment principles of index system and the features of catastrophe theory, the essay studies all the influences of each mutation factor and builds up the evaluation index system.In the last part of the essay, an evaluation case study of four companies of dairy product industry is conducted by the model with their operating data and the industry conditions from 2004 to 2010, and its evaluation result and another result based on a fuzzy comprehensive method are compared. It is found that the former system is more sensitive to burst risks in evaluation progress and more practical in real situation. As a result, this theoretical model with more scientific nature and applicability is a valid supplement to the existing credit risks evaluation methods. |
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