Vulnerability Study Of Supply Chain Network Based On Evolutional Model

With the rapid change in political, economic, technological and environmental conditions as well as increased diversified and personalized demand, the supply chain network is becoming more and more complex and increasingly vulnerable. How to effectively analyze the vulnerability of supply chain network is an important method to maintain the effective operation of the supply chain network. Based on complex network theory and combined with the characteristics of supply chain network, this paper builds a weighted hierarchical supply chain network model to make in-depth analysis of its vulnerability, and puts forward the method to identify important nodes in the network.Firstly, the roots and influencing factors of supply chain network vulnerability are analyzed. And the related knowledge of complex network as well as the research status of its application to the supply chain network is introduced, while the shortages of current research are also pointed out.Secondly, with the use of complex network, where the node enterprises in supply chain are abstracted as nodes and the connections between node enterprises as edges, the evolutionary model of supply chain network is estabilished. Not only the join of new nodes and the increase in new connections between original nodes, but also the exit of original nodes from the network and the interrupt of old business relationship are taken into account in the model, which considers the different strength of business relationship between the node enterprises and hierarchical characteristics and is more consistent with the actual supply chain network. The statical parameters showed by analyzing the statistical properties of the model correspond to the actual situation.Thirdly, on the basis of the estabilished supply chain network evolutionary model,the supply chain network vulnerability is analyzed. The network connectivity, network efficiency and load entropy are selected as the measurement index for vulnerability,where the static and dynamic vulnerability are respectively discussed from the aspects of network structure and cascading failure. In addition, in the process of cascading failureanalysis, the self organized criticality of supply chain network is revealed, and the effect of network structure on the scale of cascading failure is analyzed. And then, the method to determine the node importance is put forward based on the cascading failure, which helps to identify potentional key nodes in the network.Finally, through the actual supply chain network of Shanghai Automobile Group,the applicability and effectiveness of the supply chain network model and vulnerability analysis method is validated.