Based On The Theory Of Noise Trading Analysis Of Characteristics Of The Real Estate Price Fluctuations

The noise trading theory is a study of the behavior of financial asset traders from the perspective of psychology.When the ability of real estate investors to obtain information is limited or in the case of noise interference,investors makes their investment is bound to cause price fluctuations in the real estate market.This paper firstly introduces the theory of real estate price and the noise trading theory in behavioral finance,and on the basis of analysis the mechanism of the effect of noise trading in our country of real estate price fluctuation,and summarize the influence of noise trading behavior of the real estate market.And then from the last ten years of the real estate market price trends and statistical indicators analysis of the current situation of price fluctuations.This paper selects China's 35 large and medium-sized city of first class,second class,third class section of monthly real estate prices data as the sample,research time span from January 2005 to June 2015,total of 8 190 observation sample values.In consideration of the inflation factor,premise the data consistent,based on the DSSW model of noise trading theory,empirical analysis of the influence of noise expectations on the price fluctuation of real estate market in 3 types section of China 35 large and medium-sized city.In this paper,the role of rational traders in real estate market is been fully considered in the empirical process,the rational noise factor has been add.In addition,empirical results is test by ARCH LM Test,establish TARCH model and the R/S analysis method for calculating the Hurst exponent,along with fitting the noise trading situation under the influence of real estate price fluctuation.Based on the above empirical analysis method,this paper draws the following conclusions.First,the noise in the real estate market has a significant impact on the price of real estate,and it has a strong effect on the price volatility.Irrational behavior of noise traders is an important factor of real estate price fluctuation during the period,the noise factor coefficient of a few cities is negative,and it has a negative effect on house price.Second,the rational expectations of the consumer's coefficient is negative,restrain the real estate price fluctuations,but compared to the expected noise advancing the role of real estate prices,the effect is weaker.The most obvious factor is the interest rate,which proves that China's monetary policy on the real estate price regulation is effective.Third,there are differences in the influencing factors of three kinds of section in 35 large and medium cities in China.Fourth,real estate price volatility is perform the characteristic of volatility gather,the price fluctuation is influenced by the prior information,suggesting that China's real estate market has a dense inertia of investment.The fifth point is the asymmetry of the price fluctuation of our country.The sixth point is that there is a lot of noise trading in China's real estate price volatility has the characteristic of long memory.Comprehensive analysis of the above conclusions,this paper puts forward some suggestions for policy makers and consumers.The government should establish a sound mechanism for the long-term regulation of real estate in our country,strengthen the construction of the information platform in the real estate market,has reached the policy effect of transparency in information disclosure,suppression of noise trading behavior in the real estate market.