Study On Bubbles Of Housing Price In Shanghai Based On Noise Trading

With the rapid development of China's economy,the real estate industry has been developing rapidly.However,while the real estate industry has driven economic development,investment of real estate market has also increased,especially in the past ten years,the rise of housing prices in the whole country is obvious,especially in principal cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.The rise of housing prices is not only related to people's livelihood,but also causes social problems and affects the development of related industries such as finance.Therefore,exploring the changing pattern of housing price and the reasons for the rising housing prices will help standardize the market and operate the society.This article selects the commodity housing price of Shanghai in 2006-2016 years as the research object,combining with the characteristics of Shanghai commodity housing market,using the index analysis method to judge the existence of the real estate bubble in the commodity housing market of Shanghai City,and through the calculation of the ratio of house price to income and the /GDP growth rate of the house price growth rate,finding that the growth rate of the house price in Shanghai has exceeded the normal level of income.On this basis,this paper uses the state space model to make a further quantitative study of the real estate bubble.The results show that the housing market in Shanghai has real estate bubbles since 2006 to 2016,and the bubble is smaller and negative during 2006-2008 years.The bubble began to turn positive in 2009 and began to expand rapidly in 2015,showing a trend of sustained growth.In order to further analyze the formation mechanism of Shanghai commodity housing bubble,this paper introduces the noise trading theory into the housing market and establishes a noise trading model,and then acquired the cause and effect relationship formulation of the real estate bubble and the noise expectation.Therefore the question of explores the transformation of the irrational real estate bubble formation has been changed to the impact of noise expectation on the real estate bubble.In this paper,the main body of the noise expectation is divided into the demand side,the supplier and the three party of the financial institution.In order to quantify the noise expectation of the participants,this paper selects the housing market price,the total land market transaction price and the real estate market total investment,the real estate enterprise loan amount as the housing.The expected proxy variables of noise demand for housing demand providers,residential suppliers and financial institutions.The noise expectation of the three parties is fitted by the proxy variables,and then the vector autoregressive model is established with the real estate bubbles in Shanghai.Then getting the effect of the three noise expectations on the real estate bubble by the impulse response and the variance decomposition.The results show that there is a causal relationship between the expectation of the above main body and the bubble in the housing market,and the bubble is greatly influenced by the expected noise of the demand side and the financial institutions.Finally,the paper gives corresponding policy recommendations based on the analysis results.