Research On Natural Rubber's Price Fluctuations And Risk Countermeasures

As China's rapid economic development, the contradiction between natural rubber demand and output have become increasingly prominent. Since 2002, China exceed United States as the world's largest natural rubber importer, China's dependence on foreign imports of natural rubber is more than two-thirds, the self-sufficiency rate is below the international security cordon standards of 30%. This situation has led China become the passive recipients of international prices of natural rubber. Natural rubber is one of the four major industrial raw materials, as strategic goods, its frequent fluctuations of price will not only affect the development of downstream industries, but also affect the development of the national economy and economic security. Thus, an deeply study on factors that influence natural rubber price fluctuations, make a reasonable risk countermeasures to guarantee China's rubber industry and national economy as steady, rapid and sustained, that is of great significance.Based on the supply and demand theory of microeconomics, industrial security theory and the theory of natural rubber futures market, under the guidance of theories, such as in the long and short term to discuss the two aspects of natural rubber price influence factors, and through the vector autoregressive(VAR) model and vector error correction model(VEC)empirical research on the influencing factors. The long-term factors from the perspective of both supply and demand factors, focuses on analyzing the natural factors, the major producer country policy, the alternative synthetic rubber, with the influence of rubber industry from four aspects; Short-term factors mainly analyze the futures market, the dow Jones index, the dollar index, international crude oil prices, a stock five factors affect the price of natural rubber. Empirical analysis results show that the demand for long-term factors influence day glue price cycle roughly 4-5 years, supply impact on rubber day price for continuous long-term; Natural rubber futures prices in the short term factors of day has the greatest effect in the glue price, futures prices of rubber into positive influence, the futures price logarithmic every 1% increase, the rubber price will increase 1.153% in the form of a log. Rubber price fluctuations are proposed according to the results of the analysis of risk prevention strategy.Deal with long-term factors mainly for the purpose of gain pricing power, put forward the improving self-sufficiency, procurement channels, strengthening financial support to the three aspects of the rubber industry; To cope with short-term factors mainly from the perspective of the futures market, exert the functions of the futures market price discovery and risk aversion.