Research On The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Price Fluctuation Of Natural Rubber Futures And Hainan Rubber Stocks

Natural rubber as the "brown gold" of the four major raw materials is the largest country in industrial development,China,as the largest importer of natural rubber,its own industry supply side is insufficient and the international discourse power is weak.Especially since the new crown pneumonia epidemic,the international situation has changed,bringing challenges to the safe development of China’s industry and risks to the safe development of the natural rubber industry.In the midst of surging changes,maintaining the sustainability of the supply side of natural rubber strategic resources and the stability of the price on the demand side is the bottom-line thinking that should be done under the long-term risk response,and the importance of studying the stability and influence of natural rubber prices in the macroeconomic context is selfevident.This paper studies the differential fluctuation relationship between the natural rubber futures price of Shanghai Futures Exchange and the price of Hainan rubber stock affected by macroeconomic factors.The GARCH-MIDAS model is used to study the response degree of natural rubber futures price and Hainan rubber stock price to macroeconomic changes,so as to infer the relative stability of natural rubber price,and on this basis,a one-way causal measure is constructed to verify the structural impact of different US dollar circulation on the causal relationship between natural rubber price and Hainan rubber stock price,so as to measure the influence of natural rubber price.In the study on the influence of macroeconomic factors on the price fluctuation of natural rubber futures and Hainan rubber stocks,it is found that the causal relationship between the price fluctuation of Hainan rubber stocks and macroeconomic factors is significantly greater than that between the price fluctuation of natural rubber futures and macroeconomic factors.The Hainan rubber stock market is more sensitive to the external environment,and in contrast,the natural rubber futures market has a certain stability.Furthermore,the structural changes in the fluctuation relationship between the natural rubber futures market and the Hainan rubber stock market during the quantitative period of the US dollar are explored.In the first time period,the fluctuation relationship between natural rubber futures prices and Hainan rubber stock prices showed a mutual causal influence relationship;In the second time period,the US dollar opened unlimited quantitative easing,and the price of natural rubber futures had a short-term one-way causal impact on the price of Hainan rubber stocks,and the impact of Hainan rubber stock prices on the price of natural rubber futures was not significant;The fluctuation relationship between the third time period natural rubber futures price and Hainan rubber is manifested in the fact that the influence of futures price on stock price is much stronger than the impact of stock price on futures price,but stock price has a long-term impact on futures price.Based on the research results,this paper gives suggestions on strengthening the safety of natural rubber industry,controlling futures trading risks,enhancing price guidance and protecting the income of rubber farmers,in order to provide reference for natural rubber industry to cope with external risks and enhance price influence.