Research Of Multi-Agent Simulation On The Time Decision And Substitution Of The Diffusion Of Multi Generation Technology Innovation Product

At present,the level of technologic development has become the main indicators to measure a country's comprehensive strength.As the main driving force of scientific and technological development, technological innovation directly determines the strength of the country's scientific and technological development. But a technological innovation must be taken into a wide range of applications or diffusion in order to play its biggest effect. From now on,most of the research is aimed at the diffusion of the single technology innovation products, and the situation of multiple technological innovation is rare. And in the real society, in order to keep up with the pace of economic and technological development, enterprises need to constantly update and launch new products to meet the needs of the community and consumers,so the situation of multi generation products is very common. At the same time, more and more industries and enterprises start to use the means of preannounce and presell, which can not only predict the future of new products sales, but also play a promotional role in the product. Therefore, it has important significance to do research on the simulation of the diffusion of multi generation technology innovation products,and considering the situation of presell has a certain creativity.In two cases of without and with considering the presell activities, Take the advertising intensity, word of mouth effect and time choice as influencing factors,respectively establishing A multi agent simulation model of multiple generations technology innovation diffusion,using Anylogic as a tool to analyze the influence of time decision and other parameters on the diffusion results. Then do sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors by repeated experiments.Experimental results show that:(1) In the case of presell, the introduction of the second generation products should be as close as possible to the early period of the first generation of products,and delay the introduction a little will result in a great negative impact on the overall spread of the product; after the new generation of products entering the market,enterprises can not fully invest in the new generation of products, and should be appropriate to the promotion of the old generation of products.(2) The change in presell time has little effect on the overall diffusion result and the substitution effect between the two generation products;and it has positive effect on the diffusion of the new generation of products in the market,which will be stronger when the presell time is earlier. When the effect of the presell activity on the first generation user is stronger than the effect on the potential user,it will be more advantageous to the diffusion of new generation products. And when the former is weaker than the latter, there will be a strong negative reaction.