| At present, the United States and Brazil in the development of biofuel ethanol industry have been more mature whose industrial production of biofuel ethanol have been realized with a relatively stable market. In contrast, due to the late start time, the development of small scale, raw material supply and other factors, China's biofuel ethanol industry is not stable, and the gap is obvious.This paper takes U.S. biofuel ethanol industry as an example to quantitatively analysis the factors that affect the development of biofuel ethanol, by constructing VAR model including variable fuel ethanol production, policy support, the price of corn, gasoline prices, GDP and greenhouse gas emissions and utilizing pulse impulse response function and variance decomposition model. Studies have found that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the fuel ethanol production with corn prices, gasoline prices, GDP, greenhouse gas emission amount; policy support factors has a significant positive effect on fuel ethanol production; in the long term effect of gasoline prices and GDP of fuel ethanol production ring is larger, and the effects of corn prices and greenhouse gas emissions small.On this basis, combined with the specific problems faced by the development of China's biofuel ethanol industry, this paper puts forward some targeted policy recommendations. Firstly, sound industrial policy is the key to promote the development of fuel ethanol industry; reducing the threshold of market access and expanding investment channels are the inevitable choice for the realization of China's fuel ethanol industry market. Secondly, combined with the actual situation of people in China, the domestic development of cellulose ethanol should be developed to solve the problem of "competing with people for food, and food for the land" problem. Finally, the relevant enterprises should take a number of measures to promote the terminal consumption of fuel ethanol, expand the fuel ethanol market. |
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