Research On The Impact Of Capital Project Opening On The Risking Of China's Banking System

In recent years,with the improvement of the RMB in the international influence,how to promote the process of internationalization of the RMB has become the focus of attention of economists.October 1,2016,RMB will officially become a component of the SDR,for the promotion of the internationalization of the RMB has played a positive role in promoting.RMB capital account convertibility as an important part of the internationalization of the RMB,the appropriate increase in the degree of openness of capital projects will help to accelerate the process of internationalization of the RMB.But the increase of the degree of capital account openness is a double-edged sword,while bringing economic benefits,it also causes the domestic financial market is not stable.In the financial market of our country,the bank occupies the dominant position.In recent years,the scale of the bank's non-performing loans has increased,and the assets condition has been deteriorating.So in the current economic environment,research on capital account liberalization impact on the stability of the banking system,the advantages and disadvantages and risks based on the analysis of capital account liberalization in the process,it has a certain theoretical reference and practical significance for promoting the process of RMB internationalization.In this study,the existing literature on the finishing,to understand the capital project open theory of the latest research trends,and then for the research ideas and methods,innovation and inadequate to do a simple introduction.Then discussed the capital project open concept,mode and principle and opening degree measurement method,comparative analysis of the major international economies of capital account liberalization of international experience and policy adjustment,to analyze the risks brought by the opening of the capital account from macroscopic and microcosmic aspects,including the macroscopic aspect refers to the impact on macro economy the latter refers to the banking system caused by impact.On this basis,the process of China's capital account opening process,the internationalization of the RMB and the main performance of the risk of the banking system are analyzed.In the empirical part,a model is constructed to fit the index of bank stability,which greatly improves the model's fit.By examining the data,the VEC model is fitted,and the exchange rate,inflation rate and dummy variable are included in the model.The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between capital account openness and stability of the banking system,capital account openness increases,the stability of the banking system will have a greater impact;inflation and the new economic condition is limited to affect the stability of the banking system;the risk of devaluation will improve the banking system.Based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis,obtained the following conclusions: first,a capital account of the risks of the banking system is time-varying;second,the full liberalization of capital account restrictions will impact the banking system;third,the capital project open up the financial system needs to be stable;fourth,inflation and exchange rate fluctuations will impact the banking system.Through the conclusion of the study,and learn from the history and experience of foreign capital project open,put forward the following suggestions: first,the opening of the capital account should the situation;second,strengthen financial supervision and strengthen the stability of the financial system;third,improve the RMB interest rate and exchange rate stabilization mechanism;fourth,to prevent the impact of market risk in financial markets.