An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Rate Of Non-performing Loans Of Commercial Banks

The problem of bad loans has been paid attention to by the financial circles.As a result,the problem of non-performing loan can further affect the stability and core competitiveness of banks by influencing the ownership structure of banks and the management organizations.Subprime mortgage crisis in the United States can even lead to the occurrence of the financial crisis.Therefore,it is an urgent problem to analyze how to reduce the incidence of non-performing loan rate and prevent its happening,and to analyze the influence factors of non-performing loan rate of commercial banks.It is combined with China's actual conditions,considering the impact of macroeconomic factors on the credit risk of commercial banks,has a very real significance.In this paper,the definition of non-performing loan rate is explained from the point of view of commercial banks in China.Then the theory and method of non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks are studied.The credit risk of commercial banks and macro-Relations were studied.In the aspect of data,it selects the quarterly data of non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks in China from 2008 to2015,and introduces macroeconomic variables such as urban unemployment rate,GDP,consumer price index and money supply.And then use the cointegration test,VAR model,error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the urban unemployment rate,GDP,consumer price index,urban residents' income,The long-term effect of money supply on the non-performing loan ratio of large commercial banks,joint-stock commercial banks,rural commercial banks and urban commercial banks,as well as short-term impact analysis.Concluded as follow:(1)In the long term,the urban unemployment rate has a positive impact on the non-performing loan ratio of large commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks,and the negative impact of GDP on the non-performing loan ratio of large commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks.GDP as a macroeconomic indicators,it is an important indicator of national economic conditions,the decline in GDP response to the decline in the level of national economic development,economic downturn,this time to give large commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks danger for companys' economic risk.The bank has become a good place for enterprises to pass on their own business risks,during which there will be unable to pay principal and interest and so on,resulting in a large numberof non-performing loans.The weak economic strength of urban banks and rural banks,sensitive to the policy macro-control,the corresponding control of non-performing loans according to the formation of the market economy.(2)The consumer price index is a positive impact on the long-term impact of the non-performing loan ratio of large commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks in China,and negative impacts on rural commercial banks and urban commercial banks.The consumer price index reflects the consumption purchasing power of the residents,to some extent,there is a co-reaction with GDP.This study shows that their impact on the NPL ratio of different commercial banks is different from that of the commercial banks.The impact of non-performing loan rate symbols are consistent.(3)Money supply can be used as a target for observing and regulating the balance of medium and long-term financial markets.When loose monetary policy is adopted,large and medium-sized non-state enterprises and state-owned enterprises will adopt expansionary investment measures Large-scale commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks as a large and medium-sized non-state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises liquidity protection of the main bank is bound to increase the credit in this period of large and medium-sized non-state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprise investment behavior is often a lack of reasonable expectations and improve the planning,resulting in loss of investment projects,so that non-performing loan rate.(4)In the short term,the impact of non-performing loan ratio of rural commercial banks on their own is a positive impact,and the impact is significant(P <0.05).In the short term,the impact of GDP on joint-stock commercial banks is positive,and the impact is significant(P <0.05).The impact of consumer price index on large commercial banks is positive,and the impact is significant(P <0.05).At the end of the paper,the paper puts forward the methods and strategies to manage the NPL ratio.Commercial banks should improve the management level of credit risk and the management of interest rate risk,realize the "double down" of NPL ratio of commercial banks,increase the NPL securitization and change the corresponding Development strategies to adapt to the economic situation and the central bank economic policy.