The Study Of Hong Kong's Offshore RMB Market's Impact On Mainland Financial Market

In recent years,Hong Kong's offshore RMB market has maintained the momentum of rapid development,and domestic capital market is not yet completely open,restricted freedom of mainland financial markets,the mainland financial market can easily be affected by the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong.Mainland financial market is not perfect,it is difficult to lead the market expeditiously conduct of the strain and adjustment by some natural means.With the development of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong,we should continue to focus on the impact and risk offshore markets brings to the mainland financial markets,to find effective means of dealing with the negative effects,to ensure the smooth operation of financial markets in the mainland.Therefore,this paper will first introduce the channels of Hong Kong's offshore RMB market and the Mainland financial markets,including cross-border RMB clearing mechanism,the offshore RMB and the return channel and get CNH retained channels.Through theoretical analysis and then separately investigate the effects of Hong Kong offshore RMB market to the mainland direct financial markets,in direct financial markets and monetary policy.I long Kong's offshore RMB market is found to have impacts on the mainland direct and indirect financial markets through offshore RMB interest rate and exchange rate.Then the paper chooses Hibor,NDF,Shanghai Composite Index,based on VAR model,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,empirical tests of the offshore RMB's impact on the mainland stock market,and found that Hong Kong's offshore RMB market is difficult to have a material impact on the stock market.Then this paper has chosen Hibor,NDF,Shibor,based on VAR model,examine the effects of Hong Kong offshore RMB market for the mainland indirect financial markets and found Shibor and Hibor inversely change in the relationship,Shiobr and NDF first change together and then reverse changes.Hong Kong's offshore RMB market will have some impact on the Mainland indirect financial markets.Finally,this paper selected the RMB deposits in Hong Kong and the money supply in the mainland,based on the VAR model for further analysis of the impact of Hong Kong's offshore RMB market to mainland monetary policy.Found that the quantity of money supply on the mainland to some extent influenced by Hong Kong's RMB offshore market,the effectiveness of monetary policy by China weakened in some way.In order to cope with the impact of Hong Kong's offshore RMB market to Mainland financial markets may result,in conjunction with the development of Hong Kong's offshore RMB market,and promote the process of internationalization of the RMB,improve the domestic financial market,we believe that it should gradually liberalized domestic interbank bond market and orderly opening the mainland stock market,enhance customer information sharing between Hong Kong and mainland financial institutions to enhance offshore RMB business innovation capacity and service level of commercial banks,and to strengthen the monitoring of RMB cross-border flows.