Research On The Fluctuation Of Real Estate Market And The Effect Of Policy Regulation

Domestic real estate market is known as policy-dependent.Destocking has been the target of regulation in real estate market since 2015,which has been repeatedly and vigorously stressed by the government.About one year later,the real estate market has shown good effect of regulation.The National Bureau of Statistics data show that,in the first half of 2016,the growth rate of residential sales reached 30%,and the total inventory in 70 cities decreased by 0.3%,which achieve 10 consecutive months fell.However,affected by the adjustment of relationship between supply and demand,real estate market ushered in a new round of outbreak in first-tier and second-tier cities,prices of land and housing rose sharply,which could increase price bubble and bubble burst risk.The promulgation of monetary,fiscal and other regulatory policies would affect the existing real estate market,especially on housing prices,and how they work is still a hot issue in the research of the regulation policy's effectiveness on real estate market.In real estate market,the regulation policy is diversified,considering the combination of many policies.The selection of optimal combination of regulation policies is not only conducive to the healthy development of the real estate market,more conducive for the government to regulate macro-economy.This paper constructs several VAR and VECM models,which include real estate transaction value and volume,quantitative and priced monetary policy,fiscal policy and economic growth,to study the effect of the regulation policies on real estate market,and to compare the effectiveness of different regulation policies.In the "new normal" of economic growth,the study of regulation and control policies has a certain reference value.Through empirical analysis,this paper gets the following conclusions:First,if we examine the effect of monetary policy separately,affected by the long-term stable relationship and short-term fluctuation relationship,house prices will be significantly affected by quantitative and priced monetary policy whether in short-term or long-term,loose monetary policy impact on housing prices have a certain role in promoting.Befitting interest rate policy can realize effective regulation of transaction price in short-term.Second,if we examine the effect of fiscal regulation policy separately,house prices were significantly affected by financial policy,and tax policy shocks can suppress fluctuations of house prices in short term.Third,the research of monetary-fiscal regulation policy shows that,loose monetary policy will fuel the volatility of housing prices;fiscal policy can stabilize housing prices.In addition,the slowdown of economic growth will lead to rising house prices in the long run.Fourth,under the background of slowing economic growth,on the aspect of the volatility of housing price,regulation effect and time-lag,fiscal regulation policy is better than monetary regulation policy to a certain extent.Currently the priced monetary policy and fiscal policy might be a better combination.