Research On The Impact Of Monetary Policy On Real Estate Market

At the “19th National Congress of the Communist Party of china in 2017”,the CPC Central Committee proposed to prevent the outbreak of the systemic financial crisis.The volatility of the real estate market is an important factor causing the outbreak of the financial crisis.In the new economic situation,how does the government adjusts the monetary policy and other macro-control policies to promote the stable development of the real estate market,and prevent the outbreak of local and systemic financial crisis have become a non-negligible topic.China's real estate market is a typical regional market,and there are a lot of speculative demand in the market.From the reality,although the effect of administrative regulation on the real estate market in China is obviously,after all,the administrative color is too strong.If it continue to be implemented,it will inevitably lead to the real estate market being too "administrative".Therefore,monetary policy with a higher degree of marketization plays a decisive role.Based on the above background and the actual development of real estate,this paper will focus on the regional heterogeneity of monetary policy in the real estate market according to the division criteria of the first-tier cities,the new-tier cities and the second-tier cities,at the same time,take into account the impact of administrative regulation on housing price.By comparing analyzing of the impact of monetary policy and administrative regulation on the real estate market,this paper provides empirical basis and policy enlightenment for the regulate of the real estate market,the development of the whole economic industry chain,the scientific formulation of monetary policy and the improvement of the impact of monetary policy on housing prices.Firstly,this paper expounds the theoretical basis of the impact of China's monetary policy on the real estate market,including the related theory of monetary policy and real estate market,and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on the real estate market.Secondly,it introduces the regulation process and existing problems of China's real estate market.The specific contents are the course of monetary policy,administrative-control,finance and taxation policy,land policy regulating and controlling the real estate market,and the problem existing in the development of China's real estate market.Finally,by selecting the panel data of 46 cities in the first-tier cities,the new-tier cities and the second-tier cities from2008 to 2017,take the loan interest rates,credit scale,statutory reserve ratio as explanatory variables,add the home purchase restriction as a dummy variable.The dynamic panel and panel vector autoregressive model are used to empirically study the influence of monetary policy instrument variables and purchase restrictions on the real estate market.By analyzing the results of dynamic panel regression,impulse response and variance decomposition,the following conclusions and countermeasure suggestions are obtained.Research conclusions: 1.The positive impact of credit scale on housing prices in first-tier,new first-tier cities and second-tier cities is the largest among all monetary policy instruments,and has the greatest impact on housing prices in first-tier cities;2.The deposit reserve ratio has the greatest impact on housing prices in first-tier cities,has the least impact on housing prices in second-tier cities,and the impact on housing prices in new first-tier cities is somewhere in between;3.The impact of loan interest rate on housing prices in the second-tier cities is significantly negative,while the impact on housing prices in first-tier and the new first-tier cities is not significant;4.The negative impact of the home purchase restriction policy on the housing price in first-tier cities,new first-tier cities and second-tier cities decreasing in turn,and the impact of the home purchase restriction on the housing price in first-tier and new first-tier cities is greater than the monetary policy;5.Compared with the first-tier cities and the second-tier cities,the housing price in the previous period has the greatest impact on the current housing price in the new first-tier cities.Some countermeasure suggestions: 1.Combine the home purchase restriction and the loan-restriction policy to curb the speculative demands of real estate market in the first-tier cities;2.In response to the development of the real estate market in the new first-tier cities,the government should pay more attention to the increase in the supply of affordable housing,at the same time,focus on guiding the rational expectation of real estate prices in the new first-tier cities,precisely implementate policy;3.We should vigorously develop financial market in the second-tier cities,while focusing on loose credit policies to promote self occupation and improve housing demand in the second-tier cities;4.Improve the real estatefinancial system,promotes the development of the substantial economy,regulate real estate developer and investor behavior.