The New Normal Of China's Economy:The Research Of The Credit Transmission Mechanism

In 2012 China's macroeconomic environment has undergone great changes.As economic development has entered a new normal,the new economic norm will inevitably bring about new changes in the economic level.In recent years,a series of new and different changes have taken place in the financial sector,including changes in new monetary policy,changes in bank assets business and financing channels.These new changes have made China's financial environment more complex and brought a profound impact to China's credit transmission mechanism.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of the credit transmission mechanism in China under the new economic background and its conduction effect.Based on the theory and combined with the current financial environment,this paper analyzes the influence and conduction of the credit transmission process in China's new normal period by using the two methods of statistical analysis and empirical test.It is helpful to improve the effectiveness of credit transmission in China and provide policy recommendations for improving the effectiveness of credit transmission in China.The main contents of this paper can be summarized as the following four aspects:First of all,this paper begins with the background and purpose of this paper.And it reviews the theories and literatures on the new normal economy and credit transmission mechanism both at home and abroad.According to the different viewpoints of domestic and foreign scholars on the theory of credit transmission,this paper summarizes the domestic and foreign literatures from the aspects of existence,effect and influencing factors of monetary policy credit transmission.Secondly,the related theories of credit transmission mechanism are summarized and analyzed.As the credit transmission mechanism is developed from the previous experience,this paper introduces the theory of credit availability and credit rationing and analyzes the existence of the credit transmission mechanism in China.Then it analyzes the mechanism of credit transmission and analyzes the factors at affect the credit transmission mechanism according to each link of credit transmission mechanism.The above theoretical preparation will lay a theoretical foundation for the following theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.Thirdly,the paper introduces the new normal state of the economy and the new changes.And then analyzes the impact of these changes on the credit transmission mechanism.Next,we establish the VAR model and use the method of impulse response analysis to test the validity of credit transmission mechanism.The empirical results show that the monetary policy has promoted the supply of credit;the off-balance-sheet business has increased the money supply in the short term;the direct financing level has restrained the loan supply;the bank credit has obvious pulling effect on the economic output,investment and consumption;The effect of bank credit on consumption is stronger than that on investment.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions according to the results of empirical research.As the financial environment changes,the bank's off-balance-sheet business has been developing rapidly in recent years and is helpful to the bank credit supply.However,the risks involved cannot be neglected.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the regulation of the off-balance sheet business.It is proposed to promote the development of other monetary policy transmission channels in order to ensure the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.Finally,it is suggested to promote the use of the structural adjustment tools of monetary policy to adjust China's industrial structure.The innovation of this paper mainly has the following two points.First is the use of qualitative and quantitative research methods.On the one hand,it analyzes qualitatively the impact of credit transmission mechanism under the background of new normal economy.On the other hand,it also examines the influence of these factors on credit transmission mechanism through empirical data collection and empirical analysis of the transmission effect of credit transmission mechanism.The qualitative analysis provides a theoretical basis for quantitative analysis,and quantitative analysis of the results provided qualitative analysis of the data on the support.Second is the theory of flexible use.This paper uses previous experience to solve existing problems,which is the previous experience in the use of the current environment.The shortcoming of this paper is that China's economic and financial environment is still in constant reform and steady progress.For the reason of data selection and other reasons,there are other variables which do not enter the model for empirical testing.In addition,this paper also lacks microcosmic research on the role of credit transmission mechanism in China,and needs to continue to study and research later.