The Analysis Of The Influential Factors Of Joint-stock Commercial Banks' Non-performing Loans

The problem of non-performing loans of commercial bank exists in many countries.Experts and scholars also made great efforts in solving this problem.However,most of research is about the major state-owned commercial banks and the entire banking system.Few studies are about the bad assets management system of Joint-stock commercial banks.With the development of economy,the joint-stock commercial bank have gradually become an important part of the commercial banks in our country,and its share of the banking market is growing.From the beginning of 2012,the non-performing loan ratio of joint-stock commercial banks showed a rising trend.The problem of non-performing loans have a variety of risk.In recent years,city commercial banks have developed rapidly and state-owned commercial banks have reformed.If the Joint-stock commercial banks want to develop in the competition,analyze the influence factors of the non-performing loan problem and solve the problem is very important.The writer take the joint-stock commercial banks as the research subject and study the problem of non-performing loan.Because most of the joint-stock commercial banks started lately.They had no historical baggage and policy tasks.But the joint-stock commercial bank doesn't have many outlets and its operating capital is limited.It does not have the same policy treatment as state-owned commercial banks have.The study analyze the problems combined with the unique characteristics of the joint-stock commercial banks.The paper begins from the research of background and significance,first elaborated the concept,the classification and the bad loan related theory.Include the classification of non-performing loans in two stages and focus on the current loan"five classification".The paper introduced the theory of non-performing loans include financial fragility theory,credit theory and the theory of bank behavior.Then this paper analyzes the current situation of the non-performing loan ratio of the joint-stock commercial banks in our country.According to the scale of non-performing loans,the dynamic trend of the non-performing loans of the joint-stock commercial banks in recent years has been analyzed.And explain the reason why the joint-stock commercial bank has higher non-performing loan ratio compared to other types of banks.According to the structure of non-performing loans,the writer analysis the loan migration rate of the joint-stock commercial banks and the concentration of the loan industry.The paper analyzes the influencing factors of joint-stock commercial banks'non-performing loans from the theoretical and empirical perspective.Theoretical analysis includes three aspects:the macro environment,the joint-stock commercial banks and the companies.The analysis of macroeconomic environment,including macroeconomic fluctuations,the transition of economic system,national industrial support policies,financial supervision system.The analysis of the joint stock commercial banks,including the banks' operating capital,business innovation,corporate governance structure,loan issuance management.The analysis of the loan enterprise includes the profit ability and the operation ability and the credit risk.According to the empirical aspect,this paper selected factors from the three major aspects,including total retail sales of social consumer goods,broad money supplying growth rate,growth rate of GDP,total asset of joint-stock commercial banks,asset-liability ratio of joint-stock commercial banks,total industries' climate index and the non-performing loan ratio of joint-stock commercial banks,a total of seven variables to built the VAR model and explain the economic meaning of the empirical results.The results of the empirical results show that in the long run,under the other conditions remain unchanged,the growth rate of GDP,total retail sales of social consumer goods,broad money supplying growth rate and asset-liability ratio of joint-stock commercial banks have a positive relationship with non-performing loan ratio of joint-stock commercial banks.Total industries' climate index and total asset of joint-stock commercial banks have a negative relationship with non-performing loan ratio of joint-stock commercial banks.The contribution rate of the broad money supplying growth ratio is the largest,and the contribution rate of the asset-liability ratio of joint-stock commercial banks is the smallest.However,in the short term,the growth rate of GDP,total retail sales of social consumer goods,broad money supplying growth rate and asset-liability ratio of joint-stock commercial banks have a negative relationship with non-performing loan ratio of joint-stock commercial banks.Total industries' climate index and total asset of joint-stock commercial banks have a positive relationship with non-performing loan ratio of joint-stock commercial banks.Finally,this paper puts forward policy suggestions to prevent and resolve the problem of bad loans.Including the grasp of the economic situation,the appropriate expansion of joint-stock commercial banks,the development of strict credit procedures,improving the economic efficiency of the enterprise itself,the establishment of multiple channels of corporate capital system.